TCFC North Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU12 (2014-2015) · 9 teams · T3 Futbol Club (all teams)

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1st

4-0-1 record · 5 played

2.40 points per game

+7 goal diff · 12–5

LWWWWlast 5

80% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.2

-0.96 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 23, 06:30 PM

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TCFC North Pre
1st · 2.40 PPG

Internationals SC Pre
3rd · 2.14 PPG

Pinnacle Sports, OT 11v11 ↗ far trip

23% 19% 57%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.89 expected points)

Season so far	TCFC North Pre	Internationals SC Pre
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-1	5-0-2
Points per game	2.40	2.14
Goals for / game	2.4	4.0
Goals against / game	1.0	1.3
Clean sheets	3	3
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W L	L L W W W
Biggest win	4–0 at WNY Flash Pre	9–0 at WNY Flash Pre
Worst loss	0–2 vs Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin	2–5 at GTFC Impact Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.69	+1.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.96	-0.43

Common opponents: Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin — we 0–2; they 1–2. Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre — we 3–0; they 7–1. Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre — we 4–3; they 6–1. GTFC Impact Pre — we 1–0; they 2–5. WNY Flash Pre — we 4–0; they 9–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Internationals SC Pre score 4.0/game — well above the league's 2.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 06:30 PM at Pinnacle Sports.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Internationals SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (TCFC North Pre – Internationals SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3	4th▼ down 3
Win 2.50 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.17 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	4th▼ down 3	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

15% finish 1st

80% top 4

20% below the top 4

3.2 average finish

1st 15%
2nd 20%
3rd 20%
4th 25%
5th 13%
6th 7%
7th <1%
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

25 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link TCFC North Pre to Internationals SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

17 favour them

-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

15 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.99 · 1st hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 23 06:30 PM	Internationals SC Pre 3rd · 5-0-2 · GD +19	Away far trip Pinnacle Sports	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.89	2.15	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:30 PM	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -3	Away far trip Kilbourne Run Sports Park- 4625 Westerville Rd Col	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	1–1	1.71	2.09	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:00 AM	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +16	Home Victory Sports Park	●●●●○ Tough	32%	1–1	1.19	1.97	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

TCFC North Pre

2.40

LWWWW

-0.96

+0.99

80%

3.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	4–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	1–0
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	4–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	0–2

Next: Fri Oct 23 at Internationals SC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona · Sat Nov 14 vs Cleveland Force Pre- Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–1	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cleveland Force Pre- Blue

+16

2.29

WWDWW

-0.44

+0.69

100%

1.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 9	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	3–0
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at TCFC North Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	TCFC North Pre (1st)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Internationals SC Pre

+19

2.14

WWWLL

-0.43

+0.69

100%

2.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	1–0
W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	6–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	9–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	7–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–0

Next: Fri Oct 23 vs TCFC North Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 23	vs	TCFC North Pre (1st)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

GTFC Impact Pre

1.67

LLWWW

+0.61

-2.44

76%

3.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	TCFC North Pre (1st)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–3
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin

1.57

DLDLW

-0.04

-0.91

39%

4.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 18	at	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	1–5
D	Wed Oct 7	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	3–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	1–4
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	12–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (1st)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	3–1	76%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Barcelona

-3

1.00

DWDLL

+0.96

-1.59

6.2

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	0–1
D	Wed Oct 7	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	4–3
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	1–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs TCFC North Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	TCFC North Pre (1st)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	5–0	94%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

-6

1.00

LLWLW

+0.58

-1.83

6.6

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	4–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	TCFC North Pre (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–7
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	1–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	3–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs GTFC Impact Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	5–1	95%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre

-8

0.50

WLLLL

+0.09

+0.30

8.0

L	Fri Oct 16	at	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	1–2
L	Fri Oct 9	vs	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–3
L	Fri Sep 25	at	TCFC North Pre (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	WNY Flash Pre (9th)	6–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin · Sat Oct 24 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	1–2	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre

-39

0.00

LLLLL

+0.77

+0.12

9.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	TCFC North Pre (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Internationals SC Pre (3rd)	0–9
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cleveland Force Pre- Blue (2nd)	0–9
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Dublin (5th)	0–12
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (8th)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs GTFC Impact Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Kings Hammer SC Barcelona See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (7th)	1–5	2%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	GTFC Impact Pre (4th)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Kings Hammer SC Barcelona (6th)	0–5	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.40 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.