FC Dayton Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 11 teams · FC Dayton (all teams)

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7th

3-1-4 record · 8 played

1.25 points per game

-2 goal diff · 15–17

LLWWWlast 5

1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6

-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:30 PM

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FC Dayton Pre
7th · 1.25 PPG

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
5th · 1.50 PPG

Oak Grove Park, Field 40 ↗

41% 21% 37%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.9 for, 1.8 against · 1.46 expected points)

Season so far	FC Dayton Pre	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green
Position	7th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-4	3-0-3
Points per game	1.25	1.50
Goals for / game	1.9	1.7
Goals against / game	2.1	1.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	2	3
Form (recent first)	W W W L L	W L L W W
Biggest win	5–1 vs Mercury Pre- North	5–0 at Cincinnati West Academy Elite II
Worst loss	0–5 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2	0–2 at Lakota FC Black
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.11	+0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.03	-0.56

Common opponents: Lakota FC Black — we 0–1; they 0–2. Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White — we 2–2; they 0–2. Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 — we 1–0; they 2–1. Mercury Pre- North — we 5–1; they 3–2. Cincinnati West Academy Elite II — we 5–1; they 5–0.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–1 at Lakota FC Black, 0–5 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 41%; a draw (21%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lexington Sporting Pre- Green game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Dayton Pre – Lexington Sporting Pre- Green) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.22 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.44 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	8th▼ down 1
Draw 1.22 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Loss 1.11 PPG	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1	8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–1 draw we finish as high as 6th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

1% top 4

99% below the top 4

6.6 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 1%
5th 8%
6th 42%
7th 30%
8th 19%
9th <1%
10th
11th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.60 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White	2.60 (+1.35)	1st (2.60)	16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Ohio Elite SA Pre	2.44 (+1.19)	2nd (2.41)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2	2.29 (+1.04)	3rd (2.30)	13 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Lakota FC Black	1.71 (+0.46)	5th (1.72)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green	1.50 (+0.25)	7th (1.25)	5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection
6	Racing Academy Pre	1.50 (+0.25)	4th (1.81)	5 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

37 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link FC Dayton Pre to Lexington Sporting Pre- Green through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

20 favour us

2 even

15 favour them

+0.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.27 · 7th hardest of 10

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 01:30 PM	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green 5th · 3-0-3 · GD +1	Home Oak Grove Park	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.46	1.27	Upside
Sat Nov 7 01:20 PM	Mercury Pre- West 8th · 2-0-4 · GD -6	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–1	1.59	1.30	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White

+20

2.60

WDWWW

-0.21

—

100%

1.0

Ohio Elite SA Pre

+13

2.44

LWWWW

-0.13

+0.02

100%

2.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 10	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0
W	Fri Oct 9	vs	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	2–5
D	Thu Oct 1	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	2–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lakota FC Black (4th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

+22

2.29

WDWWW

-0.43

+0.20

98%

2.6

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	5–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	5–0
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at Racing Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sun Nov 8 vs Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	3–1	68%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lakota FC Black (4th)	2–0	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lakota FC Black

1.71

WLWWL

+0.06

-0.34

35%

4.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	2–0
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	0–2
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- North · Sun Nov 8 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 · Sun Nov 15 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre- Green

1.50

WWLLW

-0.56

+0.82

6.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	5–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at FC Dayton Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Academy Pre

1.50

WLLW

+0.63

-0.51

63%

4.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Aug 29	at	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	5–1

Next: Mon Jan 1 at Mercury Pre- North · Sat Oct 24 vs Mercury Pre- West · Sat Oct 31 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	3–1	75%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	1–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	3–1	83%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Dayton Pre

-2

1.25

LLWWW

-0.03

-0.27

6.6

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–5
D	Sat Aug 29	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	2–2
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Pre- Green · Sat Nov 7 at Mercury Pre- West See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	1–1	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- West

-6

1.00

LWLLL

+0.53

-0.69

7.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lakota FC Black (4th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 10	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Fri Oct 9	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Racing Academy Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dayton Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	1–1	49%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- North

-16

0.57

DLLWL

+0.21

+0.00

9.4

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	1–5
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	2–3

Next: Mon Jan 1 vs Racing Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lakota FC Black · Sun Nov 8 vs Mercury Pre- West See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Mon Jan 1 (no score yet)	vs	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati West Academy Elite II

-19

0.56

DLLLL

+0.15

+0.37

9.6

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	0–2
D	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (11th)	1–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Racing Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	1–3	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite 2

-16

0.00

LLLLL

+0.21

+0.00

10.9

L	Sun Oct 11	at	Mercury Pre- North (9th)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC BSA Celtic White (1st)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Dayton Pre (7th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Pre- Green (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Cincinnati West Academy Elite II (10th)	0–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre- West · Sat Nov 7 at Racing Academy Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Lakota FC Black See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre- West (8th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Racing Academy Pre (6th)	0–2	5%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Lakota FC Black (4th)	0–1	8%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.72 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.