Ohio Premier Pre- UA

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 10 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

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5th

4-0-4 record · 8 played

1.50 points per game

-4 goal diff · 18–22

LWLLWlast 5

35% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.7

+0.17 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:30 PM

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Ohio Premier Pre- UA
5th · 1.50 PPG

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre
7th · 1.33 PPG

OP Training Facility, field 5N ↗

37% 25% 38%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.4 for, 1.4 against · 1.37 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier Pre- UA	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	4-0-4	2-2-2
Points per game	1.50	1.33
Goals for / game	2.3	0.8
Goals against / game	2.8	0.8
Clean sheets	2	3
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	W L L W L	D L W L D
Biggest win	5–0 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre	2–0 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre
Worst loss	0–5 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion	1–3 at Manta Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.33	-0.02
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.17	-0.06

Common opponents: North FC Pre- West — we 5–3; they 1–0. TCFC North Pre — we 2–5; they 1–1. Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 2–1; they 0–1. GTFC Impact Girls Pre — we 1–3; they 0–0. WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 5–0; they 2–0. Manta Pre — we 0–5; they 1–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.0); blanked in 2 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Hard to break down
Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre concede only 0.8/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–5 vs Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion, 0–5 vs Manta Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 37%; a draw (25%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
GTFC Impact Girls Pre sit 4th on 1.56 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above GTFC Impact Girls Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Pre- UA – Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.44 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 2
Win 1.67 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.44 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	7th▼ down 2
Loss 1.33 PPG	7th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 2	7th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we fall to at least 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

35% top 4

65% below the top 4

5.7 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th 35%
5th
6th 29%
7th 36%
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Manta Pre	3.00 (+1.50)	1st (2.84)	15 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion	2.50 (+1.00)	2nd (2.39)	11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	TCFC North Pre	1.67 (+0.17)	3rd (1.67)	4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 3 for their projection
4	GTFC Impact Girls Pre	1.56 (+0.06)	4th (1.56)	A point next game

How the results connect

46 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Pre- UA to Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

19 favour us

4 even

23 favour them

-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.02 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 04:30 PM	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre 7th · 2-2-2 · GD +0	Home OP Training Facility	●●●●○ Tough	37%	1–1	1.37	1.49	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Manta Pre

+37

3.00

WWWWW

-0.59

+2.09

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion

+20

2.50

WWWWW

-0.43

+0.21

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North FC Pre- West · Sat Nov 7 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Manta Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TCFC North Pre

1.67

WDWLD

-0.04

—

100%

3.0

GTFC Impact Girls Pre

-2

1.56

WLWLD

-0.01

—

44%

4.6

Ohio Premier Pre- UA

-4

1.50

LWLLW

+0.17

-0.02

35%

5.7

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	1–3
W	Wed Sep 2	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	North FC Pre- West (10th)	5–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus

-3

1.44

WLWWL

+0.07

—

5.6

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre

1.33

DLWLD

-0.06

+0.23

21%

6.2

D	Sat Oct 17	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	2–0
L	Fri Oct 2	at	Manta Pre (1st)	1–3
D	Fri Sep 25	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre- Sears · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Nov 7 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre- Sears

-12

0.88

WLLLL

+0.27

-0.02

7.9

L	Tue Oct 20	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–5
L	Wed Sep 23	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	North FC Pre- West (10th)	6–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-17

0.56

LLWLD

+0.15

—

9.0

North FC Pre- West

-27

0.13

LLLDL

+0.06

+2.09

10.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	0–3
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	2–5
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Manta Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	2–6
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	3–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–6	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.