Manta Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU11 (2015-2016) · 10 teams · Manta United Soccer Club (all teams)

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1st

8-0-0 record · 8 played

3.00 points per game

+37 goal diff · 41–4

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.59 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:00 AM

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Manta Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

46% 21% 33%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.7 against · 1.59 expected points)

Season so far	Manta Pre	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion
Position	1st	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	8-0-0	5-0-1
Points per game	3.00	2.50
Goals for / game	5.1	3.8
Goals against / game	0.5	0.5
Clean sheets	5	4
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W W W W
Biggest win	10–0 vs North FC Pre- West	5–0 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus
Worst loss	—	0–1 vs GTFC Impact Girls Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.02	+2.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.59	-0.43

Common opponents: WNY Flash Rochester Pre — we 6–0; they 5–0. GTFC Impact Girls Pre — we 6–0; they 0–1. TCFC North Pre — we 3–2; they 3–2. Kings Hammer SC Columbus — we 3–0; they 5–0. Ohio Premier Pre- Sears — we 5–1; they 5–0. Ohio Premier Pre- UA — we 5–0; they 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion score 3.8/game — well above the league's 2.0.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion concede only 0.5/game with 4 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Swing game — small margins
Win 46% / draw 21% / loss 33%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion have won 5 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Manta Pre – Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.78 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

99% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 99%
2nd 1%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

46 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Manta Pre to Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

26 favour us

5 even

15 favour them

+1.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

18 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +2.09 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +20	Away far trip Northern Steel Beacon Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	2–1	1.59	2.84	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Manta Pre

+37

3.00

WWWWW

-0.59

+2.09

100%

1.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	3–0
W	Fri Oct 2	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	6–0
W	Sat Aug 29	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	6–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	2–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion

+20

2.50

WWWWW

-0.43

+0.21

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	5–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs North FC Pre- West · Sat Nov 7 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Manta Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	1–2	33%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TCFC North Pre

1.67

WDWLD

-0.04

—

100%

3.0

GTFC Impact Girls Pre

-2

1.56

WLWLD

-0.01

—

44%

4.6

Ohio Premier Pre- UA

-4

1.50

LWLLW

+0.17

-0.02

38%

5.6

W	Tue Oct 20	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	1–3
W	Wed Sep 2	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	2–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Aug 30	at	North FC Pre- West (10th)	5–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus

-3

1.44

WLWWL

+0.07

—

5.6

Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre

1.33

DLWLD

-0.06

+0.23

18%

6.3

D	Sat Oct 17	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	0–0
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	2–0
L	Fri Oct 2	at	Manta Pre (1st)	1–3
D	Fri Sep 25	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	1–1
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	North FC Pre- West (10th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre- Sears · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre- UA · Sat Nov 7 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre- Sears

-12

0.88

WLLLL

+0.27

-0.02

7.9

L	Tue Oct 20	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Manta Pre (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–5
L	Wed Sep 23	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 13	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	3–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	North FC Pre- West (10th)	6–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	2–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-17

0.56

LLWLD

+0.15

—

9.0

North FC Pre- West

-27

0.13

LLLDL

+0.06

+2.09

10.0

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (9th)	0–3
D	Fri Oct 2	vs	TCFC North Pre (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	GTFC Impact Girls Pre (4th)	2–5
L	Fri Sep 18	at	Cuyahoga Valley Soccer Academy Pre (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus (6th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Manta Pre (1st)	0–10
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- Sears (8th)	2–6
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Ohio Premier Pre- UA (5th)	3–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Northern Steel Select Soccer Xplosion (2nd)	0–6	0%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.98 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.