Mercury Pre West

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Ohio Valley GU09 (2017-2018) · 5 teams · Mercury (all teams)

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2nd

4-2-0 record · 6 played

2.33 points per game

+29 goal diff · 34–5

DWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-1.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Nov 6, TBD

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Mercury Pre West
2nd · 2.33 PPG

Mercury Pre North
1st · 2.40 PPG

Venue TBD

64% 14% 22%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.9 for, 2.5 against · 2.05 expected points)

Season so far	Mercury Pre West	Mercury Pre North
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-2-0	4-0-1
Points per game	2.33	2.40
Goals for / game	5.7	6.0
Goals against / game	0.8	1.8
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W D W D	W W W W L
Biggest win	10–0 at Lexington Sporting Pre Green	11–2 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre
Worst loss	—	1–6 vs Mercury Pre West
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.89	+2.29
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.03	-1.05

Already played this season: Sun Aug 16 6–1 at Mercury Pre North (W)

Common opponents: Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 — we 2–2, 1–1; they 4–1. Lexington Sporting Pre Green — we 10–0; they 7–0, 7–0. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 6–0, 9–1; they 11–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Mercury Pre North score 6.0/game — well above the league's 3.1.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Swing game — small margins
Win 64% / draw 14% / loss 22%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Mercury Pre North have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
What a win does
Mercury Pre North sit 1st on 2.40 PPG; we are on 2.33.
A point moves us above Mercury Pre North on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre North game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Mercury Pre West – Mercury Pre North) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.43 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Win 2.43 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.14 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

69% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 69%
2nd 31%
3rd
4th
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Mercury Pre North	2.40 (+0.07)	2nd (2.21)	A point next game

How the results connect

35 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Mercury Pre West to Mercury Pre North through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us

24 favour them

-1.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Nov 6 TBD	Mercury Pre North 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +21	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–2	2.05	2.29	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 TBD	Lexington Sporting Pre Green 4th · 2-1-4 · GD -22	Home	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	6–1	2.93	2.37	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Mercury Pre North

+21

2.40

LWWWW

-1.05

+0.08

100%

1.7

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	11–2
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	7–0
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	7–0
W	Fri Aug 28	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 16	vs	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	1–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 · Fri Nov 6 at Mercury Pre West See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–1	95%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	3–1	61%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	2–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre West

+29

2.33

DWDWW

-1.03

+0.10

100%

1.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	9–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–0
D	Fri Sep 25	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	10–0
D	Sun Sep 6	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	2–2
W	Sun Aug 16	at	Mercury Pre North (1st)	6–1

Next: Fri Nov 6 vs Mercury Pre North · Sun Nov 8 vs Lexington Sporting Pre Green See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Mercury Pre North (1st)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	6–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite 2

1.43

WDWDD

-0.33

+2.29

100%

3.0

D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	1–1
D	Fri Sep 25	vs	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	4–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 6	at	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	2–2
L	Fri Aug 28	at	Mercury Pre North (1st)	1–4

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mercury Pre North See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mercury Pre North (1st)	1–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Pre Green

-22

1.00

WLDLL

+0.35

+2.89

100%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury Pre North (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	0–10
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	4–1
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Mercury Pre North (1st)	0–7

Next: Sun Nov 8 at Mercury Pre West See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	1–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-30

0.14

LDLLL

+0.76

+2.29

5.0

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Mercury Pre North (1st)	2–11
L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	1–9
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre West (2nd)	0–6
D	Sat Oct 3	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Pre Green (4th)	1–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Mercury Pre North See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Mercury Pre North (1st)	1–6	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.