FC Europa Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Northeast GU11 · 8 teams · FC Europa (all teams)

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5th

2-0-3 record · 5 played

1.20 points per game

+1 goal diff · 10–9

LLWWlast 4

22% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.8

+0.34 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 10:00 AM

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FC Europa Pre
5th · 1.20 PPG

Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue
8th · 0.00 PPG

YSC Sports, Field 1 ↗

78% 12% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.2 against · 2.47 expected points)

Season so far	FC Europa Pre	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue
Position	5th	8th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-3	0-0-4
Points per game	1.20	0.00
Goals for / game	2.0	0.5
Goals against / game	1.8	5.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W L L	L L L
Biggest win	5–0 vs PSA Monmouth Pre	—
Worst loss	1–4 at Keystone Athletic Pre	0–7 at West-Mont United Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.21	-1.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.34	+1.13

Game plan

They struggle to score
Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.8); blanked in 2 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–7 at West-Mont United Pre.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 78% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Europa Pre – Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.50 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Win 1.50 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Draw 1.17 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

22% top 4

78% below the top 4

4.8 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 2%
4th 20%
5th 76%
6th 2%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	West-Mont United Pre	2.50 (+1.30)	2nd (2.30)	42 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2	Reading Rage Surf Pre	2.40 (+1.20)	1st (2.39)	40 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
3	YMS Pre	2.00 (+0.80)	3rd (1.96)	32 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4	Keystone Athletic Pre	1.57 (+0.37)	4th (1.64)	24 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.14 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 10:00 AM	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -18	Home YSC Sports	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	3–1	2.47	1.41	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 03:30 PM	Cherry Hill FC Pre	Home YSC Sports	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.41	1.41	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	PDA South Pre- White 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22	Home YSC Sports	●●○○○ Lean win	69%	2–1	2.23	1.51	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 TBD	Reading Rage Surf Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +21	Away	●●●●● Very tough	6%	1–4	0.27	1.38	Upside
Sat Mar 13 09:30 AM	West-Mont United Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +13	Home YSC Sports	●●●●● Very tough	13%	1–2	0.57	1.29	Upside
Sun Mar 14 03:00 PM	YMS Pre 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +7	Home YSC Sports	●●●●● Very tough	22%	1–1	0.87	1.26	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	West-Mont United Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +13	Away	●●●●● Very tough	9%	0–2	0.40	1.18	Upside
Sun Apr 11 10:30 AM	Reading Rage Surf Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +21	Home The Proving Grounds	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–3	0.43	1.13	Upside
Sat Apr 17 09:30 AM	Keystone Athletic Pre 4th · 3-2-2 · GD +4	Home YSC Sports	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–2	1.20	1.13	Upside
Sat May 1 01:30 PM	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -22	Home YSC Sports	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	1.23	Bank it
Sat May 1 09:30 AM	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -22	Home YSC Sports	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	3–1	2.54	1.31	Bank it
Sat May 8 TBD	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue 8th · 0-0-4 · GD -18	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	70%	3–1	2.24	1.36	Swing game
Sat May 15 09:00 AM	PDA South Pre- White 7th · 0-1-5 · GD -22	Away far trip Westampton Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	60%	2–1	1.99	1.40	Swing game
Sat May 22 12:30 PM	YMS Pre 3rd · 4-0-2 · GD +7	Away Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●●● Very tough	16%	0–2	0.66	1.36	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

West-Mont United Pre

+13

2.50

WDW

-0.81

-0.17

100%

1.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	7–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sat Nov 14 vs PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 15 at WNY Flash Binghamton Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PA Rush Pre (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	4–0	93%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–1	32%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Delaware FC Pre (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–0	85%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–1	42%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–1	43%
·	Sat May 22	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	4–0	96%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reading Rage Surf Pre

+21

2.40

WWWW

-0.97

-0.32

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (—)	9–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	6–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (—)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	4–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA South Pre- Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Dec 6 vs FC Europa Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (—)	3–1	81%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (—)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	4–1	85%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–1	46%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	4–0	95%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–1	48%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sat May 15	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	6–0	98%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	6–0	98%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS Pre

2.00

WWL

-0.52

-0.13

97%

3.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 vs PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs Delaware FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (—)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	PA Rush Pre (—)	1–0	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Delaware FC Pre (—)	1–0	60%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–0	85%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–1	56%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–2	22%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–0	90%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–1	29%
·	Sat May 1	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat May 8	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat May 15	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–1	30%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–0	65%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic Pre

1.57

WWLWD

-0.10

-0.19

81%

4.0

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (—)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 4	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (—)	4–0

Next: Sun Sep 27 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 27 (no score yet)	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (—)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (—)	2–1	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1	79%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–1	23%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–1	46%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 8	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1	86%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Europa Pre

1.20

LLWW

+0.34

-0.14

22%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (—)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (—)	1–2

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 8 vs Cherry Hill FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs PDA South Pre- White See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (—)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–4	6%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	1–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	1–3	10%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–2	33%
·	Sat May 1	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 1	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	3–1	81%
·	Sat May 8	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	3–1	70%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sat May 22	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–2	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Binghamton Pre

-22

0.75

LLW

+1.26

-0.01

6.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Cherry Hill FC Pre (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–6
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Nov 15 vs NLSA Surf Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 21 vs PDA South Pre- Blue See all 15 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	NLSA Surf Pre (—)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–4	2%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	PDA South Pre- Blue (—)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	1–2	31%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	1–2	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA Monmouth Pre (—)	1–3	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	1–1	34%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–3	8%
·	Sat May 8	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 15	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sat May 22	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA South Pre- White

-22

0.17

LDL

+1.12

-0.12

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (—)	0–10
D	Sat Oct 17	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue · Sun Oct 25 vs PA Rush Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Delaware FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	PA Rush Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Delaware FC Pre (—)	1–2	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–2	14%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–4	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat May 1	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–2	5%
·	Sat May 8	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat May 22	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf Pre- Blue

-18

0.00

LLL

+1.13

-0.02

7.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Match Fit Surf Pre- White (—)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	at	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at PDA South Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs Delaware FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs PA Rush Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Delaware FC Pre (—)	1–3	13%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	PA Rush Pre (—)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–3	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	PDA South Pre- White (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	WNY Flash Binghamton Pre (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–4	3%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS Pre (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–3	15%
·	Sat May 15	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (4th)	1–3	6%
·	Sat May 22	at	Reading Rage Surf Pre (2nd)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.77 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.