FSA FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- New England GU11 · 9 teams · FSA FC (all teams)

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7th

0-1-1 record · 2 played

0.50 points per game

-2 goal diff · 2–4

LDlast 2

15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.1

-0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:15 AM

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FSA FC Pre
7th · 0.50 PPG

East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
5th · 1.20 PPG

East Meadow Field of Dreams, North 9v9 ↗ far trip

22% 27% 51%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–1 (expected goals 0.8 for, 1.4 against · 0.93 expected points)

Season so far	FSA FC Pre	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre
Position	7th	5th
Record (W-D-L)	0-1-1	1-3-1
Points per game	0.50	1.20
Goals for / game	1.0	1.0
Goals against / game	2.0	0.6
Clean sheets	0	3
Held scoreless	0	3
Form (recent first)	D L	L W D D D
Biggest win	—	3–0 at Scorpions SC Pre
Worst loss	1–3 at FC Stars Marlboro Pre	0–1 at Select South Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.34	+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.00	-0.30

Common opponents: FC Stars Marlboro Pre — we 1–3; they 0–0. World Class FC Pre — we 1–1; they 0–0.

Game plan

Hard to break down
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre concede only 0.6/game with 3 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 22%; a draw (27%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 10:15 AM at East Meadow Field of Dreams.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Stars Lancaster Pre sit 6th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.50.
A point moves us above FC Stars Lancaster Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Meadow Soccer Club Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC Pre – East Meadow Soccer Club Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.33 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1
Win 1.33 PPG	5th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 2	5th▲ up 2
Draw 0.67 PPG	7th— holds	6th▲ up 1	8th▼ down 1
Loss 0.33 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	8th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 0–1 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

15% top 4

85% below the top 4

6.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 5%
4th 11%
5th 18%
6th 24%
7th 24%
8th 17%
9th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Select South Pre	3.00 (+2.50)	1st (2.41)	47 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
2	SUSA FC Pre	2.17 (+1.67)	2nd (2.32)	34 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
3	FC Stars Marlboro Pre	1.67 (+1.17)	4th (1.42)	26 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
4	World Class FC Pre	1.50 (+1.00)	3rd (1.54)	23 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre	1.20 (+0.70)	5th (1.41)	A point next game
6	FC Stars Lancaster Pre	0.80 (+0.30)	7th (0.99)	A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FSA FC Pre to East Meadow Soccer Club Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

2 even

3 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

10 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 9

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Sep 19 11:00 AM no score posted	FC Stars Lancaster Pre 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6	Away far trip FC Stars Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.39	0.80	Upside
Sat Oct 24 10:15 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 1-3-1 · GD +2	Away far trip East Meadow Field of Dreams	●●●●● Very tough	22%	0–1	0.93	0.83	Upside
Sun Oct 25 08:00 AM	SUSA FC Pre 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +18	Away far trip The SUSA Orlin & Cohen Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	5%	0–3	0.25	0.71	Upside
Sat Oct 31 11:00 AM	Connecticut FC United Pre 8th · 0-0-2 · GD -4	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●○○ Toss-up	48%	1–1	1.68	0.87	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 08:30 AM	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 1-3-1 · GD +2	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	28%	0–1	1.12	0.91	Upside
Sun Nov 15 01:00 PM	SUSA FC Pre 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +18	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●● Very tough	8%	0–2	0.37	0.84	Upside
Sat Mar 13 08:30 AM	Select South Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●● Very tough	14%	0–2	0.61	0.82	Upside
Sat Mar 27 TBD	Select South Pre 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +10	Away	●●●●● Very tough	10%	0–2	0.45	0.78	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Scorpions SC Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Away	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	2–1	2.18	0.91	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 08:30 AM	FC Stars Lancaster Pre 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -6	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●○○ Toss-up	49%	2–1	1.67	0.97	Swing game
Sat May 1 08:30 AM	Scorpions SC Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -17	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	2–0	2.39	1.08	Bank it
Sat May 15 08:30 AM	World Class FC Pre 4th · 1-3-0 · GD +1	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	29%	1–1	1.15	1.08	Upside
Sun May 16 08:30 AM	FC Stars Marlboro Pre 3rd · 3-1-2 · GD -2	Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.42	1.11	Upside
Sat May 22 TBD	Connecticut FC United Pre 8th · 0-0-2 · GD -4	Away	●●●●○ Tough	40%	1–1	1.43	1.13	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Select South Pre

+10

3.00

WWWW

+0.02

-0.24

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	2–0
W	Tue Oct 6	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	4–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–0	58%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	3–0	82%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	2–0	67%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 27	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	2–0	74%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–0	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SUSA FC Pre

+18

2.17

WWLWW

-0.36

-0.23

100%

1.6

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 18	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 13	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Nov 15 at FSA FC Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	3–0	85%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	3–0	86%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	2–0	77%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	3–0	83%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	1–1	52%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	5–0	98%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat May 1	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–0	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Marlboro Pre

-2

1.67

WWDLW

+0.05

-0.05

48%

4.6

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–5
D	Sat Oct 3	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	1–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Feb 27	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–1	70%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–2	9%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	52%
·	Sun May 16	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

World Class FC Pre

1.50

DDWD

+0.22

-0.18

73%

4.0

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–0
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	1–1

Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 26 (no score yet)	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–1	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	58%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0	79%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–0	29%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–0	56%
·	Sat May 15	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Meadow Soccer Club Pre

1.20

DDDWL

-0.30

+0.03

52%

4.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	3–0
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	2–2
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	0–0
D	Sat Sep 19	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–0	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–1	12%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–0	43%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	0–0	37%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–1	22%
·	Sat May 1	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–1	16%
·	Sat May 15	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–0	48%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Stars Lancaster Pre

-6

0.80

WLDL

+0.01

+0.06

6.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–3
D	Sun Oct 4	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	2–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	4–1

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs FSA FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Select South Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Feb 27	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Mar 6	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–1	65%
·	Sun Mar 7	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–3	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	1–1	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	46%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–2	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FSA FC Pre

-2

0.50

-0.00

+0.00

15%

6.1

D	Sat Oct 17	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 19 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–2	8%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Mar 27	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–1	66%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	2–1	49%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0	75%
·	Sat May 15	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–1	29%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	40%
·	Sat May 22	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Connecticut FC United Pre

-4

0.00

+1.06

-0.11

6.9

L	Sat Oct 24	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	7%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Scorpions SC Pre (9th)	2–0	68%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–2	11%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–3	6%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	0–1	19%
·	Sat May 15	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–1	23%
·	Sat May 22	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–1	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Scorpions SC Pre

-17

0.00

LLLLL

+0.52

+0.07

8.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–3
L	Tue Oct 6	at	Select South Pre (1st)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Select South Pre (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	World Class FC Pre (4th)	0–2	10%
·	Sat Mar 6	vs	FC Stars Lancaster Pre (6th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Mar 7	vs	FC Stars Marlboro Pre (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Connecticut FC United Pre (8th)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	World Class FC Pre (4th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	FSA FC Pre (7th)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Meadow Soccer Club Pre (5th)	0–2	7%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	SUSA FC Pre (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sat May 1	at	FSA FC Pre (7th)	0–2	10%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.52 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.