FC Stars Marlboro Pre
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- New England GU11 · 9 teams · FC Stars (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 7, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.7 against · 1.27 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Stars Marlboro Pre | Connecticut FC United Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W W | L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 vs Scorpions SC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at SUSA FC Pre | 1–2 vs World Class FC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.22 | -0.24 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.04 | +0.18 |
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre, 0–5 at SUSA FC Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (23%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Connecticut FC United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Marlboro Pre – Connecticut FC United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.57 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 5th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 22%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 18%
- 7th 12%
- 8th 5%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Select South Pre | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.32) | 38 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 2 | SUSA FC Pre | 2.00 (+0.33) | 2nd (2.26) | 22 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link FC Stars Marlboro Pre to Connecticut FC United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.01 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–1 | 1.27 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 4th · 1-3-0 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
0–1 | 1.01 | 1.53 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 TBD |
FC Stars Lancaster Pre 6th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
1–1 | 1.42 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Select South Pre 1st · 4-0-0 · GD +8 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.52 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 7 TBD |
Scorpions SC Pre 9th · 0-0-5 · GD -17 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.26 | 1.50 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre 5th · 1-3-1 · GD +2 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.19 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre 2nd · 3-1-1 · GD +15 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–2 | 0.46 | 1.40 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
World Class FC Pre 4th · 1-3-0 · GD +1 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
1–1 | 1.22 | 1.38 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre 8th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 1.39 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 08:30 AM |
FSA FC Pre 7th · 0-1-1 · GD -2 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.39 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Select South Pre | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 12 | 3.00 | WWWW | -0.01 | -0.18 | 100% | 1.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs World Class FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Scorpions SC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | SUSA FC Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 3 | +15 | 10 | 2.00 | DWWLW | -0.31 | -0.20 | 100% | 1.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs FSA FC Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | FC Stars Marlboro Pre | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 | 1.67 | WWDLW | +0.04 | +0.01 | 41% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 8 at World Class FC Pre · Sat Feb 27 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | World Class FC Pre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 6 | 1.50 | DDWD | +0.29 | -0.16 | 68% | 4.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Select South Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Stars Marlboro Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 | 1.20 | DDDWL | -0.30 | +0.08 | 47% | 4.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FSA FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FC Stars Lancaster Pre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | WLDL | -0.02 | +0.10 | 10% | 6.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs FSA FC Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Select South Pre · Sat Nov 7 at World Class FC Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FSA FC Pre | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 | 0.50 | LD | -0.00 | +0.04 | 15% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at FC Stars Lancaster Pre · Sat Oct 24 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sun Oct 25 at SUSA FC Pre See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Connecticut FC United Pre | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.18 | +0.01 | 20% | 6.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at SUSA FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre · Sat Oct 31 at FSA FC Pre See all 15 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Scorpions SC Pre | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 19 | -17 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.50 | +0.13 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Select South Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Connecticut FC United Pre · Sun Nov 15 vs World Class FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.