Real Colorado Pre- National
Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU11 · 7 teams · Real Colorado (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM
Highland Heritage Regional Park, HHRP West Field 02 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.3 for, 0.9 against · 2.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Real Colorado Pre- National | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-0 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D | L |
| Biggest win | 4–0 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–2 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.73 | -0.44 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.36 | +0.49 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 1 of 1.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy concede 2.0/game; worst result 0–2 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 69% / draw 18% / loss 13%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Real Colorado Pre- National – Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 2.33 PPG |
3rd— holds | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.67 PPG |
4th▼ down 1 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.33 PPG |
5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 | 5th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 29%
- 2nd 29%
- 3rd 22%
- 4th 14%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 1%
- 7th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.06) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection |
| 2 | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico | 3.00 (+1.00) | 3rd (1.76) | 14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link Real Colorado Pre- National to Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
2 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.03 · 5th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM |
Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -2 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 69% |
2–0 | 2.25 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 09:00 AM |
Pride SC Pre- Predators 5th · 0-0-2 · GD -2 |
Home Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 67% |
2–0 | 2.20 | 2.11 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM |
Colorado Rush Pre- Blue 1st · 2-0-0 · GD +3 |
Away Collegiate Academy of Colorado · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 36% |
1–1 | 1.34 | 1.96 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 09:00 AM |
Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +1 |
Away Highland Heritage Regional Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.54 | 1.89 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Rush Pre- Blue | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -0.64 | +0.20 | 97% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Real Colorado Pre- Athletico | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 | 3.00 | W | -0.36 | +0.03 | 87% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Real Colorado Pre- National | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | -0.36 | -0.03 | 95% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.14 | -0.16 | 89% | 2.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 15 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 21 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Pride SC Pre- Predators | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.21 | -0.02 | 10% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +0.49 | -0.02 | 16% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Colorado EDGE Pre- Select | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +0.62 | -0.09 | 6% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Mar 14 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.