Colorado Rush Pre- Blue

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Colorado GU11 · 7 teams · Colorado Rush (all teams)

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1st

2-0-0 record · 2 played

3.00 points per game

+3 goal diff · 4–1

WWlast 2

97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2

-0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:00 AM

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Colorado Rush Pre- Blue
1st · 3.00 PPG

Pride SC Pre- Predators
5th · 0.00 PPG

Pride Soccer Complex, Field 4 South ↗ far trip

53% 26% 21%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–0 (expected goals 1.5 for, 0.9 against · 1.84 expected points)

Season so far	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue	Pride SC Pre- Predators
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-0	0-0-2
Points per game	3.00	0.00
Goals for / game	2.0	0.5
Goals against / game	0.5	1.5
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W	L L
Biggest win	2–0 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy	—
Worst loss	—	0–1 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.49	-0.36
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.64	+0.21

Game plan

They struggle to score
Pride SC Pre- Predators average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 1.3); blanked in 1 of 2.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Swing game — small margins
Win 53% / draw 26% / loss 21%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Away game
Kickoff 11:00 AM at Pride Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pride SC Pre- Predators game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Colorado Rush Pre- Blue – Pride SC Pre- Predators) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	2nd▼ down 1	4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

37% finish 1st

97% top 4

3% below the top 4

2.2 average finish

1st 37%
2nd 26%
3rd 21%
4th 14%
5th 3%
6th <1%
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

Position over the season

2 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.20 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 11:00 AM	Pride SC Pre- Predators 5th · 0-0-2 · GD -2	Away far trip Pride Soccer Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–0	1.84	2.61	Swing game
Sun Nov 22 09:00 AM	Real Colorado Pre- National 3rd · 1-1-0 · GD +4	Home Collegiate Academy of Colorado · turf	●●●●○ Tough	39%	1–1	1.41	2.31	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico 2nd · 1-0-0 · GD +1	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–0	1.64	2.18	Swing game
Sun Mar 21 12:00 PM	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE 4th · 1-1-0 · GD +1	Away far trip Regis University	●●●●○ Tough	41%	1–1	1.48	2.06	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Colorado Rush Pre- Blue

3.00

-0.64

+0.20

97%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	2–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 vs Real Colorado Pre- National · Sat Mar 20 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)	1–0	53%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- Athletico

3.00

-0.36

+0.03

87%

3.0

Sun Sep 20

Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)

1–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado EDGE Pre- Select · Sun Nov 22 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	1–0	64%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–0	54%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)	0–1	26%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Real Colorado Pre- National

2.00

-0.36

-0.03

95%

2.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	4–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Nov 15 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	2–0	69%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)	2–0	67%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)	1–1	36%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	1–1	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE

2.00

+0.14

-0.16

89%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	2–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 15 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy · Sun Mar 21 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)	1–1	34%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	2–1	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pride SC Pre- Predators

-2

0.00

+0.21

-0.02

10%

5.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	0–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Colorado Rush Pre- Blue · Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 22 at Colorado EDGE Pre- Select See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)	0–1	21%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	0–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy

-2

0.00

+0.49

-0.02

16%

5.5

Sun Oct 18

Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)

0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Real Colorado Pre- National · Sun Nov 15 vs Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE · Sun Nov 22 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	0–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	1–1	26%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Colorado EDGE Pre- Select (7th)	1–1	49%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)	1–1	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Colorado EDGE Pre- Select

-5

0.00

+0.62

-0.09

6.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Real Colorado Pre- National (3rd)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Colorado Rush Pre- Blue (1st)	1–2

Next: Sun Nov 15 at Real Colorado Pre- Athletico · Sun Nov 22 vs Pride SC Pre- Predators · Sun Mar 14 at Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Real Colorado Pre- Athletico (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Pride SC Pre- Predators (5th)	1–1	31%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Arsenal Colorado Pre- Academy (6th)	1–1	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Colorado Storm Pre- ELITE (4th)	1–2	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.