Utah Surf PRE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Utah BU11 · 7 teams · Utah Surf (all teams)
Next game — Thu Oct 29, 05:30 PM
La Roca FC Utah County Complex, Field 4 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.5 against · 0.79 expected points)
| Season so far | Utah Surf PRE | La Roca FC Pre South |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 7th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-2 | 1-1-2 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 7.0 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L | D W L L |
| Biggest win | — | 2–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North |
| Worst loss | 4–11 vs NUU Avalanche Pre | 0–3 at La Roca FC Pre North |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.77 | -0.40 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.20 | +0.58 |
Common opponents: La Roca FC Pre North — we 0–3; they 0–3. NUU Avalanche Pre — we 4–11; they 3–3.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs La Roca FC Pre North.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 21%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at La Roca FC Utah County Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Utah Avalanche Pre- South sit 6th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Utah Avalanche Pre- South on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Thursday goes…
Where we'd sit after the La Roca FC Pre South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Utah Surf PRE – La Roca FC Pre South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
| Win 1.00 PPG |
4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 | 4th▲ up 3 |
| Draw 0.33 PPG |
5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 | 5th▲ up 2 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
7th— holds | 7th— holds | 7th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 11%
- 6th 26%
- 7th 59%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North | 3.00 (+3.00) | 1st (2.61) | 36 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic Pre | 2.00 (+2.00) | 2nd (1.84) | 24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection |
| 3 | NUU Avalanche Pre | 1.60 (+1.60) | 3rd (1.79) | 20 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 4 | La Roca FC Pre South | 1.00 (+1.00) | 4th (1.23) | Win next game |
| 5 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (0.89) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (0.92) | Already ahead |
How the results connect
7 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link Utah Surf PRE to La Roca FC Pre South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.04 · 1st hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 29 05:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre South 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 0.26 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -5 |
Away Rockwell Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
2–3 | 1.01 | 0.45 | Upside |
| Fri Nov 6 07:40 PM |
Utah Athletic Pre 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away Zions Bank Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.36 | 0.43 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 21 02:00 PM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home Smooth Canyon Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.23 | 0.56 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 25% |
2–3 | 0.90 | 0.61 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
La Roca FC Pre South 4th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–3 | 1.10 | 0.67 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -5 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 40% |
3–3 | 1.37 | 0.75 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 05:00 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
La Roca Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.12 | 0.69 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
NUU Avalanche Pre 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
2–6 | 0.28 | 0.65 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Utah Athletic Pre 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.57 | 0.64 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.60 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Apr 3 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.18 | -0.31 | 98% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at La Roca FC Pre North · Fri Oct 23 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 vs Utah Surf PRE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NUU Avalanche Pre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | -0.19 | -0.36 | 98% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Apr 3 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC Pre South | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.58 | -0.39 | 61% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Thu Oct 29 vs Utah Surf PRE · Sat Mar 13 vs La Roca FC Pre North See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.71 | -0.25 | 18% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 21 at Utah Surf PRE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.66 | -0.11 | 20% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Fri Oct 23 at Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Surf PRE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +1.20 | -0.04 | 5% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 at Utah Athletic Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.