La Roca FC Pre South
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Utah BU11 · 7 teams · La Roca FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.0 against · 1.49 expected points)
| Season so far | La Roca FC Pre South | Utah Avalanche Pre- South |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-1-2 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 5.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | D W L L | L |
| Biggest win | 2–0 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North | — |
| Worst loss | 0–3 at La Roca FC Pre North | 0–5 at La Roca FC Pre North |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.40 | -0.98 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.58 | +1.66 |
Common opponents: La Roca FC Pre North — we 0–3; they 0–5.
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
Utah Avalanche Pre- South average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 1.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Utah Avalanche Pre- South concede 5.0/game; worst result 0–5 at La Roca FC Pre North.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at La Roca FC Pre North, 0–3 vs Utah Athletic Pre.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 43% / draw 20% / loss 37%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Utah Avalanche Pre- South game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (La Roca FC Pre South – Utah Avalanche Pre- South) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 1.40 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.80 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 3%
- 3rd 10%
- 4th 48%
- 5th 26%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 3%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 8 remaining known games (max 2.33 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.61) | 32 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Utah Athletic Pre | 2.00 (+1.00) | 2nd (1.84) | 20 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 3 | NUU Avalanche Pre | 1.60 (+0.60) | 3rd (1.79) | 16 of 24 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection |
How the results connect
3 chains · 5 teams
Paths of results that link La Roca FC Pre South to Utah Avalanche Pre- South through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.39 · 7th hardest of 7
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 TBD |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 1.10 | Swing game |
| Thu Oct 29 05:30 PM |
Utah Surf PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -10 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–2 | 2.06 | 1.26 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:30 PM |
La Roca FC Pre North 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +15 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 12% |
0–2 | 0.54 | 1.16 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Utah Surf PRE 7th · 0-0-2 · GD -10 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
3–2 | 1.73 | 1.23 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Utah Athletic Pre 2nd · 1-1-0 · GD +3 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.78 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 10:30 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- South 6th · 0-0-1 · GD -5 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 1.24 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Utah Avalanche Pre- North 5th · 0-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home La Roca FC Utah County Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 48% |
2–1 | 1.65 | 1.28 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
NUU Avalanche Pre 3rd · 2-2-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.70 | 1.23 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | La Roca FC Pre North | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | +15 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.60 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Apr 3 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Utah Athletic Pre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 4 | 2.00 | DW | +0.18 | -0.31 | 98% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at La Roca FC Pre North · Fri Oct 23 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 vs Utah Surf PRE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NUU Avalanche Pre | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 8 | 1.60 | DWLDW | -0.19 | -0.36 | 98% | 2.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 7 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Mar 13 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Apr 3 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | La Roca FC Pre South | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLWD | +0.58 | -0.39 | 61% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Thu Oct 29 vs Utah Surf PRE · Sat Mar 13 vs La Roca FC Pre North See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Utah Avalanche Pre- North | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +0.71 | -0.25 | 18% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Sat Nov 7 vs Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 21 at Utah Surf PRE See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Utah Avalanche Pre- South | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | 0.00 | L | +1.66 | -0.11 | 20% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Utah Avalanche Pre- North · Fri Oct 23 at Utah Athletic Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs La Roca FC Pre South See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Utah Surf PRE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 0 | 0.00 | LL | +1.20 | -0.04 | 5% | 6.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Thu Oct 29 at La Roca FC Pre South · Sat Oct 31 at Utah Avalanche Pre- South · Fri Nov 6 at Utah Athletic Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.