LTFC Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · LTFC (all teams)

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1st

5-1-1 record · 7 played

2.29 points per game

+9 goal diff · 15–6

WDWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.3

-0.31 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 09:30 AM

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LTFC Pre- STXCL
1st · 2.29 PPG

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black
4th · 0.60 PPG

Bee Creek Sports Complex, Field 4B ↗

66% 15% 19%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.8 against · 2.13 expected points)

Season so far	LTFC Pre- STXCL	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	5-1-1	1-0-4
Points per game	2.29	0.60
Goals for / game	2.1	3.2
Goals against / game	0.9	4.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W D W	W L L L L
Biggest win	3–0 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL	8–2 at San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL I
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.90	+0.05
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.31	-0.10

Common opponents: San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red — we 3–2; they 8–2. Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A — we 1–1; they 2–4. FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White — we 3–0; they 4–5.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black concede 4.0/game; worst result 1–5 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL I.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 15% / loss 19%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 09:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LTFC Pre- STXCL – San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.38 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.38 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.13 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	1st— holds	3rd▼ down 2
Loss 2.00 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	2nd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

70% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.3 average finish

1st 70%
2nd 30%
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link LTFC Pre- STXCL to San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

4 favour them

-0.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 3rd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL	Home Round Rock Multipurpose Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	63%	2–1	2.06	2.26	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 09:30 AM	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black 4th · 1-0-4 · GD -4	Home Bee Creek Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	3–1	2.13	2.24	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC Pre- STXCL

2.29

WDWWW

-0.31

+0.03

100%

1.3

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

+10

2.17

WDWLW

-0.66

+0.44

100%

2.2

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	2–1	60%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White

+12

2.00

WWWLL

-0.60

+0.25

100%

2.5

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	5–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	3–2	69%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	3–2	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black

-4

0.60

LLLLW

-0.10

-0.15

75%

4.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	8–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	4–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 7 at TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	3–3	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	3–3	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL

-12

0.60

LLLWL

+0.98

-0.41

25%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Challenge United Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 24 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	1–3	21%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	2–2	43%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

-22

0.00

LLLLL

+0.73

-0.50

6.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	2–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (3rd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 14 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.