Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU12 · 6 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-2 record · 7 played

1.86 points per game

+8 goal diff · 17–9

DWLWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5

-0.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:30 AM

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Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A
3rd · 1.86 PPG

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White
2nd · 1.86 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 2 ↗

39% 20% 41%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.2 against · 1.38 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White
Position	3rd	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-2	4-1-2
Points per game	1.86	1.86
Goals for / game	2.4	3.7
Goals against / game	1.3	2.0
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	1	2
Form (recent first)	L W L W D	L L W W W
Biggest win	6–0 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL	8–0 at TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–2 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B	0–3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.61	+1.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.77	-0.70

Common opponents: San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red — we 2–0; they 7–0. San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black — we 4–2; they 5–4. LTFC Pre- STXCL — we 1–1; they 0–3. TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL — we 2–1; they 8–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.6.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 39%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
What a win does
FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White sit 2nd on 1.86 PPG; we are on 1.86.
A point moves us above FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A – FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.00 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 1.75 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.63 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

7% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.5 average finish

1st 7%
2nd 34%
3rd 59%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.11 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	LTFC Pre- STXCL	2.29 (+0.43)	1st (2.24)	8 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White	1.86 (+0.00)	2nd (1.88)	A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A to FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

5 favour them

-1.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

5 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.62 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 TBD no score posted	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid	Home Round Rock Multipurpose Complex	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.89	1.86	Swing game
Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White 2nd · 4-1-2 · GD +12	Home The Lions Club	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.38	1.81	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

LTFC Pre- STXCL

2.29

WDWWW

-0.46

+0.01

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (2nd)	3–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	3–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	63%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	3–1	66%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White

+12

1.86

WWWLL

-0.70

+0.20

100%

2.3

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	5–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs HTX S Pre- STXCL I · Sat Oct 31 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Nov 14 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	3–2	68%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	3–2	68%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–2	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

1.86

DWLWL

-0.77

+0.62

100%

2.5

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	2–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	2–0

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sat Nov 14 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (2nd)	2–2	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black

-5

0.50

LLLLW

-0.26

-0.18

76%

4.2

W	Sat Oct 17	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	8–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL I (—)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (2nd)	4–5
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Nov 7 at TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	3–3	49%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	3–3	49%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2	68%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–3	19%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL

-16

0.50

LLWLL

+0.90

-0.59

24%

4.8

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	1–2
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Challenge United Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	1–3	20%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	2–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (6th)	2–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red

-30

0.00

LLLLL

+0.67

-0.82

6.0

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–9
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL Black (4th)	2–8
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL (—)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (2nd)	0–7
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky · Sat Nov 14 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Sky (—)	1–3	13%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.61 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.