Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 7 teams · Boerne SC (all teams)

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3rd

3-1-1 record · 5 played

2.00 points per game

+3 goal diff · 17–14

DWWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.6

-0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 01:00 PM

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Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red
3rd · 2.00 PPG

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek
5th · 1.00 PPG

Bill Witt Soccer Complex, Field 5A ↗

75% 11% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.4 for, 2.2 against · 2.35 expected points)

Season so far	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-1	2-0-4
Points per game	2.00	1.00
Goals for / game	3.4	1.8
Goals against / game	2.8	5.2
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W L W W D	L L W L W
Biggest win	6–3 at Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED	3–2 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED
Worst loss	4–6 at JSA FC Pre- STXCL	1–12 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.31	-1.56
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.19	+0.15

Common opponents: BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL — we 3–3; they 1–3. Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED — we 6–3; they 3–2. JSA FC Pre- STXCL — we 3–2, 4–6; they 2–4.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 4–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red – Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.17 PPG	3rd— holds	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Win 2.17 PPG	3rd— holds	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Draw 1.83 PPG	3rd— holds	2nd▲ up 1	3rd— holds
Loss 1.67 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

2.6 average finish

1st 3%
2nd 39%
3rd 55%
4th 4%
5th <1%
6th
7th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL	2.40 (+0.40)	1st (2.46)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL	2.33 (+0.33)	2nd (2.19)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red to Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us

2 even

2 favour them

+1.7 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.71 · 7th hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek 5th · 2-0-4 · GD -20	Home Bill Witt Soccer Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	4–2	2.35	2.06	Bank it
Sun Nov 22 04:00 PM	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL 7th · 0-0-4 · GD -17	Home Blossom Soccer Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	78%	4–2	2.44	2.11	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL

+22

2.40

WWWW

-1.20

-0.75

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 10	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	LTFC Pre- STXCL (—)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	10–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	8–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED · Sat Nov 7 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	7–1	94%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	4–2	64%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	6–1	90%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL

+10

2.33

DWW

-1.03

-0.22

100%

2.1

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	3–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	8–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–1	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	5–1	88%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	4–2	69%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–2	72%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red

2.00

DWWLW

-0.19

-1.71

100%

2.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–6
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	6–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek · Sun Nov 22 vs Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–2	75%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–2	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

JSA FC Pre- STXCL

-2

1.50

LWLLW

+0.03

-0.08

95%

3.9

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	6–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	4–10
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	6–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 15 at Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–4	16%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	4–2	59%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek

-20

1.00

WLWLL

+0.15

+0.07

5.0

L	Sat Oct 10	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	3–2
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (—)	1–12

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 15 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–4	14%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–4	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED

-14

0.60

LLLLW

-0.42

+0.93

6.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL (7th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	3–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 8 vs Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green · Sat Nov 21 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–7	2%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (—)	2–4	24%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Premier Futbol Academy Pre- STXCL

-17

0.00

LLLL

-0.33

+1.47

6.9

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lions FC Pre- STXCL RED (6th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (5th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (—)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–8

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 at BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BTX Soccer Club Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–5	6%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Lonestar SAT Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–6	5%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (3rd)	2–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.56 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.