AHFC Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU11 · 6 teams · Albion Hurricanes FC (all teams)

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2nd

5-2-0 record · 7 played

2.43 points per game

+12 goal diff · 18–6

WWDWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8

-0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 14, 08:30 AM

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AHFC Pre- STXCL
2nd · 2.43 PPG

Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL
5th · 0.57 PPG

Dyess Park, Field 6 ↗

72% 14% 14%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.4 against · 2.31 expected points)

Season so far	AHFC Pre- STXCL	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-2-0	1-1-5
Points per game	2.43	0.57
Goals for / game	2.6	2.1
Goals against / game	0.9	3.6
Clean sheets	3	1
Held scoreless	1	1
Form (recent first)	W W D W W	W L L L D
Biggest win	7–1 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL	3–0 vs SG1 Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	—	0–3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.10	-0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.19	-0.14

Common opponents: Challenge United East Pre- STXCL — we 7–1; they 3–3. RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt — we 3–2; they 0–3. Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL — we 0–0; they 2–3. HTX N Pre- STXCL — we 1–0; they 4–6.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL concede 3.6/game; worst result 0–3 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Away game
Kickoff 08:30 AM at Dyess Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (AHFC Pre- STXCL – Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.50 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.25 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.13 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

15% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.8 average finish

1st 15%
2nd 85%
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.64 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt	2.57 (+0.14)	1st (2.46)	12 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection

How the results connect

12 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link AHFC Pre- STXCL to Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

6 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.22 · 4th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 14 08:30 AM	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL 5th · 1-1-5 · GD -10	Away Dyess Park	●●○○○ Lean win	72%	3–1	2.31	2.41	Bank it
Sat Dec 5 01:00 PM	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.39	Swing game
Sat Dec 5 04:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.36	Swing game
Sun Dec 6 10:00 AM	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue	Home New Territory Sports Complex	●●○○○ Lean win	67%	2–1	2.17	2.35	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt

+14

2.57

WLWWW

-0.21

-0.23

100%

1.2

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (—)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–1	80%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC Pre- STXCL

+12

2.43

WWDWW

-0.19

-0.22

100%

1.8

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (1st)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	7–1

Next: Sat Nov 14 at Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL

1.57

LWDWW

+0.06

-0.28

100%

3.0

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–2
L	Sat Sep 12	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (1st)	0–2

Next: Sun Nov 15 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold · Sat Dec 5 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–1	69%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Black (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–1	50%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

HTX N Pre- STXCL

-10

0.86

LWLLW

-0.11

+0.28

76%

4.3

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge United Pre- STXCL BU2015/16 (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	6–4
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–4

Next: Sat Nov 14 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt · Sat Dec 5 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	1–2	29%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	Lonestar ATX Pre- STXCL Red (—)	1–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL

-10

0.57

DLLLW

-0.14

+0.28

12%

5.1

W	Sat Oct 24	vs	SG1 Pre- STXCL (—)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 20	at	HTX N Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–6
D	Sat Sep 19	at	Challenge United East Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–3	14%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–2	32%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge United East Pre- STXCL

-20

0.57

LDWLL

+0.12

+0.07

12%

5.6

L	Sat Oct 24	vs	HTX S Pre- STXCL (—)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt (1st)	1–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX N Pre- STXCL (4th)	5–0
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	AHFC Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–7

Next: Sun Nov 15 at Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Dec 5 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Dec 5 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3	16%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	2–3	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.22 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.