Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 5 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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3rd

3-0-3 record · 6 played

1.50 points per game

+3 goal diff · 25–22

WWLLWlast 5

97% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1

+0.65 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 08:30 AM

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Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C
3rd · 1.50 PPG

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold
5th · 0.75 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 1W ↗

59% 13% 27%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–3 (expected goals 4.6 for, 3.4 against · 1.91 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-3	1-0-3
Points per game	1.50	0.75
Goals for / game	4.2	3.5
Goals against / game	3.7	4.3
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W L L W W	W L L L
Biggest win	9–0 vs Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red	9–5 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B
Worst loss	2–7 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A	1–5 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.12	-0.55
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.65	-0.34

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 5–3 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (W)

Common opponents: Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL — we 7–3, 0–3; they 1–5.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 13% / loss 27%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
Early kickoff
Game time 08:30 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C – FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.71 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.71 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.43 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.29 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–3 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st

97% top 4

3% below the top 4

3.1 average finish

1st 1%
2nd 11%
3rd 73%
4th 13%
5th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.10 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL	2.40 (+0.90)	1st (2.17)	15 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A	2.17 (+0.67)	2nd (2.10)	13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

12 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C to FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

+0.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.45 · 5th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 3 04:00 PM no score posted	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -11	Away The Lions Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	3–3	1.82	1.55	Swing game
Sat Oct 24 08:30 AM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -3	Home The Lions Club	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	4–3	1.91	1.59	Swing game
Fri Nov 6 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -11	Away The Lions Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	56%	3–3	1.82	1.62	Swing game
Fri Nov 13 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A 2nd · 4-1-1 · GD +11	Away The Lions Club	●●●●● Very tough	22%	2–4	0.80	1.53	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL

2.40

LWWWW

-0.07

-0.15

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	5–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–7

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	4–2	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	4–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A

+11

2.17

LWWWW

-0.37

-0.01

100%

1.7

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–1
W	Fri Oct 9	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	7–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	4–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	73%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	4–2	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C

1.50

WWLLW

+0.65

-0.45

97%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	9–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Fri Oct 9	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–7
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	7–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold · Fri Nov 6 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–3	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–3	59%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–3	56%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B

-11

1.00

WLLLL

+0.43

+0.30

70%

4.2

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–3
L	Fri Oct 16	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C · Sun Oct 4 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–3	30%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold

-3

0.75

LLLW

-0.34

+0.66

32%

4.6

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	9–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C · Sun Oct 25 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–4	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (—)	3–3	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.