Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 5 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+11 goal diff · 23–12

LWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.7

-0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:30 PM

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Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A
2nd · 2.17 PPG

Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL
1st · 2.40 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 1W ↗

51% 16% 33%

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.5 for, 2.9 against · 1.69 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	4-0-1
Points per game	2.17	2.40
Goals for / game	3.8	4.2
Goals against / game	2.0	2.6
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W W W L	W W W W L
Biggest win	7–2 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C	5–1 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B
Worst loss	4–5 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL	3–7 at Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.12	+0.96
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.37	-0.07

Already played this season: Sat Sep 19 4–5 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (L)

Common opponents: Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B — we 5–1, 3–2; they 5–1. Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C — we 7–2; they 3–7, 3–0.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 16% / loss 33%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
They arrive in form
Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A – Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.29 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Win 2.29 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 1.86 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

40% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.7 average finish

1st 40%
2nd 50%
3rd 9%
4th <1%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL	2.40 (+0.23)	1st (2.17)	11 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A to Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

1 even

5 favour them

-0.2 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 3rd hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 02:30 PM	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL 1st · 4-0-1 · GD +8	Home The Lions Club	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	3–2	1.69	2.10	Swing game
Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -3	Away The Lions Club	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	4–2	1.96	2.08	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 09:00 AM	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -3	Home Town & Country	●●○○○ Lean win	73%	4–2	2.30	2.10	Bank it
Fri Nov 13 06:30 PM	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C 3rd · 3-0-3 · GD +3	Home The Lions Club	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	4–2	2.06	2.10	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL

2.40

LWWWW

-0.07

-0.15

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	5–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–7

Next: Sun Oct 4 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	4–2	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	4–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A

+11

2.17

LWWWW

-0.37

-0.01

100%

1.7

W	Fri Oct 23	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	3–1
W	Fri Oct 9	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	7–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	4–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 at FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–2	51%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–2	73%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	4–2	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C

1.50

WWLLW

+0.65

-0.45

97%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Boerne SC Pre- STXCL Red (—)	9–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	0–3
L	Fri Oct 9	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–7
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	7–3

Next: Sat Oct 3 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold · Fri Nov 6 at Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–3	56%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	4–3	59%
·	Fri Nov 6	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–3	56%
·	Fri Nov 13	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B

-11

1.00

WLLLL

+0.43

+0.30

71%

4.2

L	Fri Oct 23	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–3
L	Fri Oct 16	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	5–9
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 12	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold (5th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 3 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C · Sun Oct 4 vs Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sun Oct 25 vs JSA FC Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 3 (no score yet)	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–3	30%
·	Sun Oct 4 (no score yet)	vs	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	JSA FC Pre- STXCL (—)	2–3	31%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Gold

-3

0.75

LLLW

-0.34

+0.66

32%

4.6

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	9–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C · Sun Oct 25 at Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL · Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red C (3rd)	3–4	27%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Central Texas Coyotes FC Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	18%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	26%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX NTH Pre- STXCL Red A (2nd)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Sting CC Pre- STXCL Korenek (—)	3–3	42%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.57 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.