Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 6 teams · Lonestar ATX (all teams)

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1st

8-0-0 record · 8 played

3.00 points per game

+46 goal diff · 64–18

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

+0.10 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 01:00 PM

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Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A
1st · 3.00 PPG

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B
4th · 1.50 PPG

The Lions Club, Field 1W ↗

86%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.7 for, 2.1 against · 2.66 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B
Position	1st	4th
Record (W-D-L)	8-0-0	3-0-3
Points per game	3.00	1.50
Goals for / game	8.0	2.7
Goals against / game	2.3	2.7
Clean sheets	1	0
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	W W W L L
Biggest win	19–0 vs Cavalry Pre- STXCL	6–3 vs AHFC Central Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	—	1–5 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.92	-0.33
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.10	-0.17

Common opponents: FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White — we 7–2; they 0–2. Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B — we 4–2; they 1–5. Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green — we 9–3; they 4–1.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 86% chance; likely score 5–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
They arrive in form
Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A – Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.78 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.67 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

100% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 100%
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

10 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A to Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us

0 favour them

+5.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.33 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +0	Home The Lions Club	●○○○○ Favorable	86%	5–2	2.66	2.96	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A

+46

3.00

WWWWW

+0.10

-0.33

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Houstonians FC W Pre- STXCL (—)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	19–0
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX SW Pre- STXCL (—)	6–5
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	9–3
W	Fri Sep 25	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	7–3
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (5th)	7–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–2	86%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B

+24

2.14

WWWLW

+0.49

-0.56

100%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (5th)	7–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	HTX SW Pre- STXCL (—)	0–4
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED PRE- STXCL (—)	11–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	12–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	3–1

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL · Sun Nov 1 at Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Rayados Pflugerville Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	4–2	78%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL

+15

1.86

WWDWL

+0.69

-0.17

100%

3.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	2–5
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cavalry Pre- STXCL (—)	10–1
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	2–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED PRE- STXCL (—)	8–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (5th)	6–2
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–3

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Antonio City SC Pre- STXCL Gold (—)	3–2	60%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	3–2	52%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B

1.50

LLWWW

-0.17

+1.22

100%

4.0

W	Fri Oct 16	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	CHALLENGE UNITED PRE- STXCL (—)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	6–3
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	1–5
L	Fri Sep 18	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (5th)	0–2

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A · Fri Nov 6 vs Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	2–5	7%
·	Fri Nov 6	vs	Barca Academy Austin Pre- STXCL Blue (—)	2–2	41%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–3	31%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White

-11

1.00

DDLWL

+0.79

+0.00

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	4–7
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	3–2
L	Sat Oct 10	vs	HTX SW Pre- STXCL (—)	2–4
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC W Pre- STXCL (—)	5–5
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green (6th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–6
W	Fri Sep 18	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	2–7

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red A (—)	2–3	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pflugerville FC Pre- STXCL Green

-9

0.71

DWDLL

+0.54

+0.86

5.9

L	Fri Oct 16	at	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red B (4th)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	AHFC Pre- STXCL Elite (—)	2–5
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Houstonians FC W Pre- STXCL (—)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	AHFC Central Pre- STXCL (—)	8–4
D	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Pre- STXCL White (5th)	0–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar ATX NW Pre- STXCL Red A (1st)	3–9
L	Fri Sep 18	at	TC Premier SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 1 vs Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Lonestar ATX NE Pre- STXCL Red (—)	2–3	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Lonestar ATX STH Pre- STXCL Red B (2nd)	2–4	12%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.00 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.