RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 8 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)

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5th

3-0-3 record · 6 played

1.50 points per game

+6 goal diff · 25–19

LLLWWlast 5

34% chance of top 4 · expected finish 5.1

-0.90 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 02:30 PM

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RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid
5th · 1.50 PPG

North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red
7th · 0.67 PPG

Pin Oak Middle School , Field 9N ↗

81% 9% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.4 for, 2.4 against · 2.52 expected points)

Season so far	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red
Position	5th	7th
Record (W-D-L)	3-0-3	1-1-4
Points per game	1.50	0.67
Goals for / game	4.2	1.8
Goals against / game	3.2	5.3
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	2	2
Form (recent first)	W W L L L	L L L L D
Biggest win	13–1 at Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL	6–1 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL
Worst loss	0–8 at One FC Houston Pre- STXCL	0–15 vs One FC Houston Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.27	-2.37
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.90	+0.43

Common opponents: Imperial SC Pre- STXCL — we 2–5; they 2–4. One FC Houston Pre- STXCL — we 0–8; they 0–15. Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL — we 13–1; they 6–1.

Game plan

They struggle to score
North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red average 1.8 goals/game (league avg 4.1); blanked in 2 of 6.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–3 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL, 0–8 at One FC Houston Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 5–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
What a win does
Dynamos Pre- STXCL sit 4th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.
A point moves us above Dynamos Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid – North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.71 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Win 1.71 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	5th— holds
Draw 1.43 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.29 PPG	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

34% top 4

66% below the top 4

5.1 average finish

1st
2nd 2%
3rd 11%
4th 22%
5th 10%
6th 55%
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX NW Pre- STXCL	2.71 (+1.21)	1st (2.64)	16 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	AHFC East Pre- STXCL	2.00 (+0.50)	2nd (2.04)	9 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL	1.71 (+0.21)	4th (1.70)	A point next game
4	Dynamos Pre- STXCL	1.50 (+0.00)	3rd (1.72)	A point next game

How the results connect

14 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid to North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

1 even

6 favour them

+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.35 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 02:30 PM	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red 7th · 1-1-4 · GD -21	Home Pin Oak Middle School	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	5–2	2.52	1.65	Bank it
Sat Nov 7 08:30 AM	Dynamos Pre- STXCL 4th · 3-0-3 · GD +8	Home Pin Oak Middle School	●●●●○ Tough	36%	3–3	1.22	1.59	Upside
Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM	HTX NW Pre- STXCL 1st · 6-1-0 · GD +19	Away far trip Burroughs Park	●●●●● Very tough	15%	2–4	0.56	1.48	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX NW Pre- STXCL

+19

2.71

DWWWW

+0.41

+0.14

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	6–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	9–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	4–2	74%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East Pre- STXCL

2.00

WLLWW

+1.37

-4.09

100%

2.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at One FC Houston Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 20 at Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–4	13%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	9–1	99%
·	Fri Nov 20	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL

+16

1.71

WWWLW

-0.89

+1.57

53%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	18–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs One FC Houston Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos Pre- STXCL

1.50

WWWLL

+0.13

-0.70

63%

4.2

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	16–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sun Nov 8 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 22 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	3–3	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	6–2	89%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	4–3	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid

1.50

LLLWW

-0.90

+0.35

34%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX E Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	13–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at HTX NW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	5–2	81%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–3	36%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

One FC Houston Pre- STXCL

+30

1.43

WWLWL

-1.33

+1.15

49%

4.5

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 18	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	15–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at Imperial SC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	3–2	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red

-21

0.67

DLLLL

+0.43

+0.78

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–15
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–9
D	Sun Sep 13	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	6–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	2–5	10%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–6	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

-75

0.00

LLLLL

+0.82

+0.63

8.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (5th)	1–13
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–14
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (6th)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–18
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (4th)	0–16
L	Sat Sep 12	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–6

Next: Fri Nov 13 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 20 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Nov 13	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–9	0%
·	Fri Nov 20	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–8	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.