One FC Houston Pre- STXCL

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 8 teams · One FC Houston (all teams)

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5th

3-1-3 record · 7 played

1.43 points per game

+30 goal diff · 42–12

WWLWLlast 5

49% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4

-1.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Nov 7, 11:30 AM

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One FC Houston Pre- STXCL
5th · 1.43 PPG

AHFC East Pre- STXCL
3rd · 1.80 PPG

Lindsay/Lyons Park, Field 22B ↗

77% 11% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.5 for, 2.1 against · 2.42 expected points)

Season so far	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL	AHFC East Pre- STXCL
Position	5th	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	3-1-3	3-0-2
Points per game	1.43	1.80
Goals for / game	6.0	3.2
Goals against / game	1.7	2.2
Clean sheets	3	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L W L W W	W W L L W
Biggest win	15–0 at North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red	5–0 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy
Worst loss	0–3 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL	2–6 vs HTX NW Pre- STXCL
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.14	+0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.32	+1.39

Common opponents: Dynamos Pre- STXCL — we 0–3; they 2–3. RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid — we 8–0; they 3–0. HTX NW Pre- STXCL — we 2–3; they 2–6.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 4–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AHFC East Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (One FC Houston Pre- STXCL – AHFC East Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Nov 2 – Sun Nov 8); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.63 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Win 1.63 PPG	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1	4th▲ up 1
Draw 1.38 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1
Loss 1.25 PPG	5th— holds	5th— holds	6th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

49% top 4

51% below the top 4

4.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 12%
4th 37%
5th 47%
6th 3%
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.78 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	HTX NW Pre- STXCL	2.67 (+1.24)	1st (2.61)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Dynamos Pre- STXCL	1.80 (+0.37)	2nd (2.02)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 9 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	AHFC East Pre- STXCL	1.80 (+0.37)	3rd (1.92)	7 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL	1.71 (+0.28)	4th (1.70)	6 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 6 for their projection

How the results connect

14 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link One FC Houston Pre- STXCL to AHFC East Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us

7 favour them

+2.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.14 · 2nd hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Nov 7 11:30 AM	AHFC East Pre- STXCL 3rd · 3-0-2 · GD +5	Home Lindsay/Lyons Park	●○○○○ Favorable	77%	4–2	2.42	1.55	Bank it
Sat Nov 21 10:00 AM	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +16	Away Lost Creek Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	3–2	1.79	1.58	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

HTX NW Pre- STXCL

+18

2.67

DWWWW

+0.49

-0.11

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	6–3
W	Sun Oct 4	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	6–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	9–1
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC NW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC NW Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2	78%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	5–2	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dynamos Pre- STXCL

+15

1.80

WWWLL

+0.14

-0.86

98%

2.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 17	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	3–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	16–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sun Nov 8 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sun Nov 22 vs AHFC SW Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	4–3	63%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	6–1	92%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	AHFC SW Pre- STXCL (—)	5–2	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

AHFC East Pre- STXCL

1.80

WLLWW

+1.39

-4.09

99%

2.7

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Navy (—)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 at One FC Houston Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 13 vs Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 20 at Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–4	12%
·	Fri Nov 13	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	9–1	99%
·	Fri Nov 20	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	8–1	97%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Imperial SC Pre- STXCL

+16

1.71

WWWLW

-0.87

+1.57

52%

4.2

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	4–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	18–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	5–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 vs One FC Houston Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Cedar Stars Rush Houston Pre- STXCL (—)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	2–3	30%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

One FC Houston Pre- STXCL

+30

1.43

WWLWL

-1.32

+1.14

49%

4.4

L	Wed Oct 21	vs	VCF HOUSTON PRE- STXCL (—)	1–3
W	Sun Oct 18	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	15–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–3
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	13–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	8–0
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 21 at Imperial SC Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	3–2	55%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid

-2

0.75

LLLW

-0.90

+0.39

6.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	13–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs HTX E Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 7 vs North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red · Sat Nov 7 vs Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	HTX E Pre- STXCL (—)	4–3	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	5–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	3–4	24%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–5	11%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red

-21

0.67

DLLLL

+0.45

+0.78

6.8

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–15
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Real Greens Soccer Academy Pre- STXCL (—)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	2–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	1–9
D	Sun Sep 13	at	HTX NW Pre- STXCL (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL (8th)	6–1

Next: Sat Nov 7 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid · Sun Nov 8 at Dynamos Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	2–5	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	1–6	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Coastal Premier Pre- STXCL

-75

0.00

LLLLL

+0.80

+0.61

8.0

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	RISE SC Pre- STXCL Vivid (6th)	1–13
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	MAFC Pre- STXCL (—)	3–14
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	One FC Houston Pre- STXCL (5th)	0–13
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Imperial SC Pre- STXCL (4th)	0–18
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Dynamos Pre- STXCL (2nd)	0–16
L	Sat Sep 12	at	North Shore FC Pre- STXCL Red (7th)	1–6

Next: Fri Nov 13 at AHFC East Pre- STXCL · Fri Nov 20 vs AHFC East Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Nov 13	at	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–9	0%
·	Fri Nov 20	vs	AHFC East Pre- STXCL (3rd)	1–8	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (4.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.