RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- STXCL BU10 · 6 teams · RISE Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 02:30 PM
Pin Oak Middle School , Field 9N ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.7 for, 2.6 against · 1.91 expected points)
| Season so far | RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt | HTX N Pre- STXCL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-0-4 | 1-2-4 |
| Points per game | 1.29 | 0.71 |
| Goals for / game | 4.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 3.7 | 2.6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L L W | L W D L |
| Biggest win | 10–1 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL | 6–0 at Challenge United East Pre- STXCL |
| Worst loss | 2–4 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL | 0–2 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.63 | -0.12 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.59 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL — we 5–2; they 2–2. AHFC Pre- STXCL — we 2–4; they 0–2. SG1 Pre- STXCL — we 4–5; they 4–5. Challenge United East Pre- STXCL — we 10–1; they 6–0.
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 59% / draw 15% / loss 26%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
SG1 Pre- STXCL sit 2nd on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.29.A win moves us above SG1 Pre- STXCL on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the HTX N Pre- STXCL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt – HTX N Pre- STXCL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.25 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.13 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 53%
- 3rd 47%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AHFC Pre- STXCL | 2.75 (+1.46) | 1st (2.72) | 16 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | SG1 Pre- STXCL | 1.50 (+0.21) | 3rd (1.38) | Win next game |
How the results connect
12 chains · 6 teams
Paths of results that link RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt to HTX N Pre- STXCL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
6 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.06 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 02:30 PM no score posted |
HTX SW Pre- STXCL |
Home Pin Oak Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 58% |
4–3 | 1.89 | 1.36 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 02:30 PM |
HTX N Pre- STXCL 4th · 1-2-4 · GD -4 |
Home Pin Oak Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
3–2 | 1.91 | 1.42 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AHFC Pre- STXCL | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 7 | +34 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWWW | -0.89 | -0.26 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at SG1 Pre- STXCL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | SG1 Pre- STXCL | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 12 | 1.50 | WDWDW | -0.93 | +2.74 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs AHFC Pre- STXCL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 29 | 26 | +3 | 9 | 1.29 | WLLW | -0.59 | -0.06 | 100% | 2.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs HTX SW Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 vs HTX N Pre- STXCL See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | HTX N Pre- STXCL | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 5 | 0.71 | LDWL | -0.36 | +0.31 | 52% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Houstonians FC W Pre- STXCL · Sat Nov 14 at RISE SC Pre- STXCL Volt See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 27 | -11 | 3 | 0.38 | LDLDL | +0.73 | -3.69 | 48% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 vs Challenge United East Pre- STXCL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Challenge United East Pre- STXCL | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 57 | -45 | 1 | 0.13 | LDLLL | +0.72 | -0.62 | 0% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 15 at Houstonians FC Pre- STXCL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.27 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.