Union FC Indy Teal II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU12 (2014-2015) 9v9 · 5 teams · Union FC Indy (all teams)

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3rd

1-2-3 record · 6 played

0.83 points per game

-2 goal diff · 16–18

LDLWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.1

+0.12 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 03:00 PM

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Union FC Indy Teal II
3rd · 0.83 PPG

Ohio Elite SA Pre
5th · 0.20 PPG

Union FC Indy Soccer Complex, Turf Field South ↗ · turf

82% 9% 9%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.5 for, 1.7 against · 2.56 expected points)

Season so far	Union FC Indy Teal II	Ohio Elite SA Pre
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-2-3	0-1-4
Points per game	0.83	0.20
Goals for / game	2.7	1.0
Goals against / game	3.0	5.8
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	1	3
Form (recent first)	L W L D L	L L L D L
Biggest win	5–1 at FC Pride Elite Pre- 2	—
Worst loss	3–5 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite 2	0–9 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.15	-2.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.12	+0.99

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 3–3 at Ohio Elite SA Pre (D)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 — we 3–3, 5–1; they 2–6. Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 — we 3–5, 2–4; they 0–6. LouCity Academy Pre- 2 — we 0–2; they 0–5, 0–9.

Game plan

They struggle to score
Ohio Elite SA Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 3.0); blanked in 3 of 5.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
They leak goals — be greedy
Ohio Elite SA Pre concede 5.8/game; worst result 0–9 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 vs LouCity Academy Pre- 2.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 4–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Ohio Elite SA Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LDLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Ohio Elite SA Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Union FC Indy Teal II – Ohio Elite SA Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 1.14 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 1.14 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 0.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 0.71 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

3.1 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 89%
4th 11%
5th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.38 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2	3.00 (+2.17)	1st (2.71)	19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	LouCity Academy Pre- 2	2.50 (+1.67)	2nd (2.45)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

30 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Union FC Indy Teal II to Ohio Elite SA Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

28 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.23 · 4th hardest of 5

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 03:00 PM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 5th · 0-1-4 · GD -24	Home Union FC Indy Soccer Complex · turf	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.56	1.08	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 02:00 PM	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +23	Away far trip Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility	●●●●● Very tough	9%	1–4	0.36	0.99	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Total Futbol Academy Elite 2

+16

3.00

WWWWW

-0.46

-0.23

100%

1.5

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	5–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	4–3
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	5–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–0
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	4–2
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	5–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–1	95%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	2–3	22%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

LouCity Academy Pre- 2

+23

2.50

WWLWW

-0.92

+0.71

100%

1.5

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	2–1
W	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	7–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	4–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	9–0
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Union FC Indy Teal II · Sat Nov 7 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	4–1	82%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	3–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Union FC Indy Teal II

-2

0.83

LDLWL

+0.12

-0.23

100%

3.1

L	Sun Oct 4	vs	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	0–2
W	Fri Oct 2	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	5–1
L	Sat Sep 12	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	2–4
D	Sat Sep 12	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–3
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	3–5
D	Fri Aug 21	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Oct 25 at LouCity Academy Pre- 2 See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	4–1	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	1–4	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre- 2

-13

0.57

LLLLL

+0.78

-2.69

94%

4.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Oct 18	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	3–4
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	1–5
L	Fri Oct 2	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	6–2
D	Fri Aug 21	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–3

Next: Sat Nov 7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (5th)	3–2	61%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-24

0.20

LDLLL

+0.99

+0.13

4.9

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 26	at	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	0–9
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	2–6
D	Sat Sep 12	vs	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	LouCity Academy Pre- 2 (2nd)	0–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Union FC Indy Teal II · Sat Oct 24 at Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Union FC Indy Teal II (3rd)	1–4	9%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite 2 (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre- 2 (4th)	2–3	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.02 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.