WNY Flash Pre- II

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 6 teams · WNY Flash Academy (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.

Add schedule to calendar

3rd

3-2-3 record · 8 played

1.38 points per game

-2 goal diff · 19–21

WLDWWlast 5

95% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8

-0.27 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

Open the match preview →

WNY Flash Pre- II
3rd · 1.38 PPG

CAU Pre
1st · 3.00 PPG

ForeverLawn Sports Complex, Field 4 ↗ far trip

15% 12% 73%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.1 for, 4.2 against · 0.56 expected points)

Season so far	WNY Flash Pre- II	CAU Pre
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	3-2-3	3-0-0
Points per game	1.38	3.00
Goals for / game	2.4	5.3
Goals against / game	2.6	2.0
Clean sheets	2	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W W D L W	W W W
Biggest win	6–2 at WNY Flash Rochester Pre	6–1 vs Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2
Worst loss	1–7 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.20	+1.53
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.27	-0.57

Common opponents: Ohio Premier Pre-Regional — we 1–7, 1–3; they 5–2. Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 — we 3–0, 2–4; they 6–1, 5–3.

Game plan

Respect their attack
CAU Pre score 5.3/game — well above the league's 2.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 15%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
CAU Pre have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 01:00 PM at ForeverLawn Sports Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the CAU Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (WNY Flash Pre- II – CAU Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.22 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Win 1.56 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Draw 1.33 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.22 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

95% top 4

5% below the top 4

3.8 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 25%
4th 70%
5th 6%
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 2 remaining known games (max 1.70 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CAU Pre	3.00 (+1.62)	1st (2.41)	19 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional	2.57 (+1.19)	2nd (2.38)	15 of 6 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule

How the results connect

30 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link WNY Flash Pre- II to CAU Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us

1 even

24 favour them

-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +1.53 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM	CAU Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10	Away far trip ForeverLawn Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	2–4	0.56	1.28	Upside
Sat Oct 24 02:45 PM	CAU Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10	Away far trip ForeverLawn Sports Complex	●●●●● Very tough	15%	2–4	0.56	1.21	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CAU Pre

+10

3.00

WWW

-0.57

-0.10

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	5–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	3–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	5–2	84%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre-Regional

+10

2.57

WWWLW

-0.13

-0.11

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Oct 31 at CAU Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–3	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- II

-2

1.38

WLDWW

-0.27

+1.53

95%

3.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–7
D	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CAU Pre · Sat Oct 24 at CAU Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

1.17

WLLDL

-0.23

+0.30

92%

3.4

L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Nov 7 at CAU Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CAU Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-4

0.50

-0.20

+0.34

13%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	2–6
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–5	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2

-17

0.38

LLWLL

+0.64

-0.94

5.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	3–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	CAU Pre (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.