Ohio Premier Pre-Regional

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU11 (2015-2016) 9v9 · 6 teams · Ohio Premier (all teams)

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2nd

6-0-1 record · 7 played

2.57 points per game

+10 goal diff · 23–13

WWWLWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6

-0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Ohio Premier Pre-Regional
2nd · 2.57 PPG

WNY Flash Rochester Pre
5th · 0.50 PPG

OP Training Facility, field 5S ↗

76% 11% 13%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.3 for, 2.0 against · 2.39 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional	WNY Flash Rochester Pre
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-1	0-1-1
Points per game	2.57	0.50
Goals for / game	3.3	2.5
Goals against / game	1.9	4.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	W L W W W	L D
Biggest win	7–1 vs WNY Flash Pre- II	—
Worst loss	2–5 vs CAU Pre	2–6 vs WNY Flash Pre- II
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.86	-0.94
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.13	-0.20

Common opponents: WNY Flash Pre- II — we 7–1, 3–1; they 3–3, 2–6.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
WNY Flash Rochester Pre concede 4.5/game; worst result 2–6 vs WNY Flash Pre- II.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 76% chance; likely score 4–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Rochester Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Premier Pre-Regional – WNY Flash Rochester Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.63 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.63 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.38 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

40% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.6 average finish

1st 40%
2nd 60%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	CAU Pre	3.00 (+0.43)	1st (2.41)	12 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 5 teams

Paths of results that link Ohio Premier Pre-Regional to WNY Flash Rochester Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

17 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	WNY Flash Rochester Pre 5th · 0-1-1 · GD -4	Home OP Training Facility	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	4–2	2.39	2.55	Bank it
Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM	WNY Flash Rochester Pre 5th · 0-1-1 · GD -4	Home OP Training Facility	●○○○○ Favorable	76%	4–2	2.39	2.53	Bank it
Sat Oct 31 10:30 AM	CAU Pre 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +10	Away far trip St. Nicholas Macedonian Orthodox Church	●●●●○ Tough	29%	2–3	1.02	2.38	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

CAU Pre

+10

3.00

WWW

-0.57

-0.10

100%

1.4

W	Sat Oct 17	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	5–2
W	Sat Oct 17	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	5–3
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	6–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs Ohio Premier Pre-Regional See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2	73%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	3–2	55%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	5–2	84%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Premier Pre-Regional

+10

2.57

WWWLW

-0.13

-0.11

100%

1.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–5
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	7–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	3–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	4–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Oct 31 at CAU Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	4–2	76%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–3	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Pre- II

-2

1.38

WLDWW

-0.27

+1.53

95%

3.8

W	Sat Oct 17	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	6–2
W	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–0
D	Sat Oct 10	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	2–2
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–4
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–3
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–7
D	Sat Sep 19	at	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at CAU Pre · Sat Oct 24 at CAU Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre

1.17

WLLDL

-0.23

+0.30

93%

3.4

L	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 10	at	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	2–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	3–0

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sat Nov 7 at CAU Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs CAU Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–2	32%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	3–1	67%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Rochester Pre

-4

0.50

-0.20

+0.34

12%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	2–6
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	3–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Premier Pre-Regional · Sun Oct 25 at Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4	13%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	2–4	13%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2 (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–3	19%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	CAU Pre (1st)	2–5	8%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	2–4	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Kings Hammer SC Columbus 2

-17

0.38

LLWLL

+0.64

-0.94

5.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	CAU Pre (1st)	3–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	4–2
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	WNY Flash Pre- II (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Ohio Premier Pre-Regional (2nd)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 13	at	CAU Pre (1st)	1–6
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds Pre (4th)	0–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre · Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Rochester Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–2	36%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	WNY Flash Rochester Pre (5th)	2–2	36%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.76 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.