Total Futbol Academy Elite

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU09 (2017-2018) 7v7 · 6 teams · Total Futbol Academy (OH) (all teams)

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4th

2-0-4 record · 6 played

1.00 points per game

-11 goal diff · 13–24

LLWWLlast 5

69% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.3

-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Fri Oct 30, 05:30 PM

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Total Futbol Academy Elite
4th · 1.00 PPG

Mercury Pre- 1
2nd · 2.38 PPG

Miami White Water Soccer Complex, Field 16 ↗ far trip

12% 10% 77%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.1 for, 4.6 against · 0.47 expected points)

Season so far	Total Futbol Academy Elite	Mercury Pre- 1
Position	4th	2nd
Record (W-D-L)	2-0-4	6-1-1
Points per game	1.00	2.38
Goals for / game	2.2	4.1
Goals against / game	4.0	2.9
Clean sheets	0	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	L W W L L	W W W W L
Biggest win	3–1 at Ohio Elite SA Pre	9–2 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre
Worst loss	3–8 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	2–12 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.22	+0.87
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.16	-0.18

Already played this season: Wed Aug 26 1–4 vs Mercury Pre- 1 (L)

Common opponents: FC Pride Elite Pre — we 0–4, 4–2; they 2–1, 5–2. Lexington Sporting Academy Pre — we 3–8; they 2–12, 2–1. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 3–1; they 9–2, 5–0. Cincinnati Elite FC Pre — we 2–5; they 4–4.

Game plan

Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at FC Pride Elite Pre.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 12%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
Mercury Pre- 1 have won 4 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 05:30 PM at Miami White Water Soccer Complex.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Friday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mercury Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Total Futbol Academy Elite – Mercury Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.86 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Win 1.29 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Draw 1.00 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds
Loss 0.86 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	4th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

69% top 4

31% below the top 4

4.3 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd 1%
4th 68%
5th 28%
6th 3%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 1.80 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	2.57 (+1.57)	1st (2.63)	20 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Mercury Pre- 1	2.38 (+1.38)	2nd (2.27)	18 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre	1.83 (+0.83)	3rd (1.75)	13 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection

How the results connect

39 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Total Futbol Academy Elite to Mercury Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us

3 even

27 favour them

-2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.68 · 1st hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Fri Oct 30 05:30 PM	Mercury Pre- 1 2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +10	Away far trip Miami White Water Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	12%	2–4	0.47	0.92	Upside
Sun Nov 8 08:00 AM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 6th · 0-1-5 · GD -27	Home TFA Harrison Soccer Complex (TSC)	●●○○○ Lean win	65%	4–2	2.10	1.07	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +8	Away far trip Home of The Brave - HOB	●●●●● Very tough	14%	2–4	0.52	1.01	Upside
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre 1st · 6-0-1 · GD +40	Away far trip Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●●●●● Very tough	2%	1–7	0.09	0.92	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

+40

2.57

WWWWL

-0.70

-1.04

100%

1.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	10–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	8–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	10–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	12–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	5–2	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	8–1	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	7–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

+10

2.38

LWWWW

-0.18

-0.26

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–12
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	9–2
W	Wed Aug 26	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–4

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sat Nov 7 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	3–3	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

1.83

WLWDW

-0.68

+0.42

100%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	5–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	6–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- 1 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–5	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	3–3	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-11

1.00

LLWWL

-0.16

+0.68

69%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	3–8
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	0–4
L	Wed Aug 26	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–4

Next: Fri Oct 30 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–4	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–2	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–4	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–7	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-20

0.43

LLLLL

+1.04

-1.50

22%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–10
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-27

0.17

LLLDL

+0.99

-0.22

5.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	3–10
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–9
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Pride Elite Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–8	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–4	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.