Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Ohio Valley BU09 (2017-2018) 7v7 · 6 teams · Lexington Sporting (all teams)

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1st

6-0-1 record · 7 played

2.57 points per game

+40 goal diff · 53–13

WWWWLlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
1st · 2.57 PPG

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre
3rd · 1.83 PPG

Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex, Field 4A ↗

82% 8% 10%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–2 (expected goals 5.6 for, 2.4 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so far	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre
Position	1st	3rd
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-1	3-2-1
Points per game	2.57	1.83
Goals for / game	7.6	3.8
Goals against / game	1.9	2.5
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L W W W W	W D W L W
Biggest win	12–2 vs Mercury Pre- 1	6–0 at Ohio Elite SA Pre
Worst loss	1–2 at Mercury Pre- 1	1–4 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.74	+0.70
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.70	-0.68

Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 4–1 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (W)

Common opponents: Mercury Pre- 1 — we 12–2, 1–2; they 4–4. FC Pride Elite Pre — we 8–0, 10–2; they 3–1. Total Futbol Academy Elite — we 8–3; they 5–2. Ohio Elite SA Pre — we 10–3; they 6–0, 4–4.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 5–2.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Cincinnati Elite FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lexington Sporting Academy Pre – Cincinnati Elite FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.63 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.63 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.38 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.25 PPG	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1	2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–2 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

97% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 97%
2nd 3%
3rd <1%
4th
5th
6th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

38 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Lexington Sporting Academy Pre to Cincinnati Elite FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us

3 even

5 favour them

+4.9 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -1.04 · 5th hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:00 AM	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre 3rd · 3-2-1 · GD +8	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	5–2	2.54	2.57	Bank it
Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM	Ohio Elite SA Pre 6th · 0-1-5 · GD -27	Away far trip Ohio Elite Training Center	●○○○○ Favorable	97%	8–1	2.92	2.61	Bank it
Sat Nov 14 10:00 AM	Total Futbol Academy Elite 4th · 2-0-4 · GD -11	Home Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex	●○○○○ Favorable	95%	7–1	2.89	2.63	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Lexington Sporting Academy Pre

+40

2.57

WWWWL

-0.70

-1.04

100%

1.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	10–3
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	8–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	10–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	12–2
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	5–2	82%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	8–1	97%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	7–1	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury Pre- 1

+10

2.38

LWWWW

-0.18

-0.26

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	5–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–12
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	9–2
W	Wed Aug 26	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–1
D	Sat Aug 22	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–4

Next: Fri Oct 30 vs Total Futbol Academy Elite · Sat Nov 7 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	77%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	3–3	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Cincinnati Elite FC Pre

1.83

WLWDW

-0.68

+0.42

100%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 11	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	5–2
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–4
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 5	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	6–0
D	Sat Aug 22	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	4–4

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Mercury Pre- 1 See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–5	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	3–2	71%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	3–3	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–2	75%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Total Futbol Academy Elite

-11

1.00

LLWWL

-0.16

+0.68

71%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–5
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	3–8
L	Sun Sep 13	at	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	0–4
L	Wed Aug 26	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–4

Next: Fri Oct 30 at Mercury Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Cincinnati Elite FC Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Fri Oct 30	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–4	12%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	4–2	65%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–4	14%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–7	2%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite Pre

-20

0.43

LLLLL

+1.04

-1.50

19%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	2–10
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	0–8
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	4–0

Next: Sun Nov 1 vs Cincinnati Elite FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Ohio Elite SA Pre See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	2–3	17%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–2	45%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA Pre (6th)	3–2	45%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA Pre

-27

0.17

LLLDL

+0.99

-0.22

10%

5.6

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	3–10
D	Sun Oct 4	at	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	4–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Mercury Pre- 1 (2nd)	2–9
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	Cincinnati Elite FC Pre (3rd)	0–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Lexington Sporting Academy Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Pride Elite Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Pride Elite Pre See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lexington Sporting Academy Pre (1st)	1–8	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3	39%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite Pre (5th)	2–3	39%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Total Futbol Academy Elite (4th)	2–4	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.48 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.