Lancaster FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU11 · 7 teams · Lancaster FC (all teams)

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7th

0-0-3 record · 3 played

0.00 points per game

-11 goal diff · 8–19

LLLlast 3

5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4

+0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:30 PM

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Lancaster FC Pre
7th · 0.00 PPG

YMS Pre
6th · 0.50 PPG

Macclesfield Park, Macclesfield Turf Field ↗ · turf far trip

25% 15% 59%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.4 for, 3.5 against · 0.91 expected points)

Season so far	Lancaster FC Pre	YMS Pre
Position	7th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-3	0-2-2
Points per game	0.00	0.50
Goals for / game	2.7	1.5
Goals against / game	6.3	2.5
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L L L	L D D L
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	1–8 at West-Mont United Pre	1–3 at Eagle FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-1.50	-0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.70	+0.54

Common opponents: PA Rush Pre — we 4–6; they 1–3. West-Mont United Pre — we 1–8; they 3–3.

Game plan

They struggle to score
YMS Pre average 1.5 goals/game (league avg 3.1); blanked in 0 of 4.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 25%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff 12:30 PM at Macclesfield Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
YMS Pre sit 6th on 0.50 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above YMS Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the YMS Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lancaster FC Pre – YMS Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Win 0.75 PPG	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1	6th▲ up 1
Draw 0.25 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	7th— holds	7th— holds	7th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

5% top 4

95% below the top 4

6.4 average finish

1st
2nd <1%
3rd 2%
4th 4%
5th 9%
6th 19%
7th 66%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	West-Mont United Pre	2.50 (+2.50)	1st (2.47)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	PA Rush Pre	2.25 (+2.25)	3rd (1.65)	27 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
3	Keystone Athletic Pre	1.50 (+1.50)	4th (1.27)	18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
4	Eagle FC Pre	1.50 (+1.50)	5th (1.08)	18 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
5	FC Europa Pre	1.33 (+1.33)	2nd (1.76)	16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6	YMS Pre	0.50 (+0.50)	6th (1.07)	A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Lancaster FC Pre to YMS Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us

1 even

4 favour them

-2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 3rd hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 12:30 PM	YMS Pre 6th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●●○ Tough	25%	2–3	0.91	0.23	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	Eagle FC Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -7	Home Foundation Field at Overlook	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	3–3	1.53	0.49	Swing game
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	FC Europa Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD +6	Home Foundation Field at Overlook	●●●●● Very tough	17%	2–4	0.61	0.51	Upside
Sat Mar 13 TBD	PA Rush Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +0	Home	●●●●○ Tough	29%	3–4	1.00	0.58	Upside
Sat Mar 20 TBD	YMS Pre 6th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Home	●●●●○ Tough	36%	2–3	1.25	0.66	Upside
Sat Apr 3 TBD	West-Mont United Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16	Home	●●●●● Very tough	7%	2–6	0.28	0.62	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Eagle FC Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -7	Away	●●●●○ Tough	33%	3–3	1.14	0.67	Upside
Sat May 8 09:30 AM	FC Europa Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD +6	Away far trip The Proving Grounds	●●●●● Very tough	10%	2–5	0.37	0.64	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Keystone Athletic Pre 3rd · 1-0-1 · GD +0	Home	●●●●○ Tough	32%	3–3	1.11	0.68	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

West-Mont United Pre

+16

2.50

WDWW

-0.22

-0.44

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	8–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	4–2	79%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	6–2	86%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	4–1	81%
·	Sun May 9	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush Pre

2.25

WLWW

-0.22

+0.08

89%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	6–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–3	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	4–3	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat May 8	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 16	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic Pre

1.50

-1.26

+0.29

55%

4.4

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	5–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–3	45%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eagle FC Pre

-7

1.50

WLWL

+0.08

+0.21

25%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	52%
·	Sun May 9	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Europa Pre

1.33

DWL

+0.33

-0.30

95%

2.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	9–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	66%
·	Sat May 1	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	5–2	82%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS Pre

-4

0.50

LDDL

+0.54

-0.17

31%

5.1

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat May 8	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	2–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lancaster FC Pre

-11

0.00

LLL

+0.70

+0.10

6.4

L	Sat Oct 3	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	4–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–3	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–4	17%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–4	29%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	2–3	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–6	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–3	33%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–5	10%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–3	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.