Keystone Athletic Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northeast - South BU11 · 7 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)

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3rd

1-0-1 record · 2 played

1.50 points per game

+0 goal diff · 6–6

WLlast 2

54% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.4

-1.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Keystone Athletic Pre
3rd · 1.50 PPG

FC Europa Pre
5th · 1.33 PPG

Moravian Academy, Field 2 ↗

30% 16% 54%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.6 for, 3.4 against · 1.06 expected points)

Season so far	Keystone Athletic Pre	FC Europa Pre
Position	3rd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	1-0-1	1-1-1
Points per game	1.50	1.33
Goals for / game	3.0	4.0
Goals against / game	3.0	2.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	L W	L W D
Biggest win	5–3 vs Lancaster FC Pre	9–1 vs Eagle FC Pre
Worst loss	1–3 at Eagle FC Pre	2–4 vs West-Mont United Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-0.22	+0.94
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-1.26	+0.33

Common opponents: Eagle FC Pre — we 1–3; they 9–1.

Game plan

Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Europa Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic Pre – FC Europa Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2
Win 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Draw 1.33 PPG	4th▼ down 1	3rd— holds	4th▼ down 1
Loss 1.00 PPG	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2	5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

54% top 4

46% below the top 4

4.4 average finish

1st <1%
2nd 8%
3rd 17%
4th 29%
5th 24%
6th 16%
7th 5%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	West-Mont United Pre	2.50 (+1.00)	1st (2.47)	27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2	PA Rush Pre	2.25 (+0.75)	3rd (1.65)	24 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Keystone Athletic Pre to FC Europa Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us

1 even

2 favour them

-4.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.29 · 1st hardest of 7

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 09:00 AM	FC Europa Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD +6	Home Moravian Academy	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–3	1.06	1.35	Upside
Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM	West-Mont United Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16	Home Charles Chrin Community Center	●●●●● Very tough	16%	2–4	0.61	1.17	Upside
Sat Nov 14 12:30 PM	YMS Pre 6th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Away far trip Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●●○ Tough	39%	2–2	1.36	1.21	Upside
Sun Nov 15 12:00 PM	PA Rush Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +0	Home Charles Chrin Community Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	3–3	1.50	1.26	Swing game
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Eagle FC Pre 4th · 2-0-2 · GD -7	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	3–2	1.97	1.36	Swing game
Sat Apr 3 09:00 AM	PA Rush Pre 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +0	Away far trip Rush Soccer Complex	●●●●○ Tough	32%	2–3	1.13	1.33	Upside
Sat Apr 17 09:30 AM	FC Europa Pre 5th · 1-1-1 · GD +6	Away far trip The Proving Grounds	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.75	1.27	Upside
Sat May 1 TBD	YMS Pre 6th · 0-2-2 · GD -4	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	50%	2–2	1.69	1.31	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	West-Mont United Pre 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +16	Away	●●●●● Very tough	10%	1–4	0.38	1.22	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	Lancaster FC Pre 7th · 0-0-3 · GD -11	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	3–3	1.75	1.27	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

West-Mont United Pre

+16

2.50

WDWW

-0.22

-0.44

100%

1.1

W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	8–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	7–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 20 vs PA Rush Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	5–1	89%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	4–2	79%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	6–2	86%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 1	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	3–2	66%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	4–1	81%
·	Sun May 9	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PA Rush Pre

2.25

WLWW

-0.22

+0.08

91%

3.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	4–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	0–7
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	6–4

Next: Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa Pre · Sun Nov 15 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–3	39%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	4–3	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4	11%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	65%
·	Sat May 8	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	42%
·	Sun May 16	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	23%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic Pre

1.50

-1.26

+0.29

54%

4.4

L	Sun Oct 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	1–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	5–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs FC Europa Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 14 at YMS Pre See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4	16%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	39%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–3	45%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	61%
·	Sat Apr 3	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–3	32%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 1	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	50%
·	Sat May 8	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Eagle FC Pre

-7

1.50

WLWL

+0.08

+0.21

25%

5.3

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–1
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–9
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West-Mont United Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	39%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–3	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–3	52%
·	Sun May 9	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–4	9%
·	Sat May 15	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	28%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Europa Pre

1.33

DWL

+0.33

-0.30

95%

2.6

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–4
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	9–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	1–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Nov 7 at PA Rush Pre · Sun Nov 8 at Lancaster FC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	54%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–2	51%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	4–2	72%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–2	56%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–2	67%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–2	66%
·	Sat May 1	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	5–2	82%
·	Sun May 16	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–2	63%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS Pre

-4

0.50

LDDL

+0.54

-0.17

31%

5.2

L	Sat Oct 3	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	3–3
D	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lancaster FC Pre · Sat Nov 14 vs Keystone Athletic Pre · Sat Mar 13 vs FC Europa Pre See all 8 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–2	42%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–2	27%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Lancaster FC Pre (7th)	3–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–3	15%
·	Sat May 1	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	2–2	32%
·	Sat May 8	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	2–2	39%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	2–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lancaster FC Pre

-11

0.00

LLL

+0.70

+0.10

6.5

L	Sat Oct 3	at	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	1–8
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–5
L	Sat Sep 12	at	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	4–6

Next: Sat Oct 24 at YMS Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Eagle FC Pre · Sun Nov 8 vs FC Europa Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	YMS Pre (6th)	2–3	25%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–3	46%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–4	17%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	PA Rush Pre (2nd)	3–4	29%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS Pre (6th)	2–3	36%
·	Sat Apr 3	vs	West-Mont United Pre (1st)	2–6	7%
·	Sun May 2	at	Eagle FC Pre (4th)	3–3	33%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Europa Pre (5th)	2–5	10%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Keystone Athletic Pre (3rd)	3–3	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.07 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.