Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- North Texas BU11 · 9 teams · Atletico Dallas Youth (all teams)

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2nd

4-1-0 record · 5 played

2.60 points per game

+26 goal diff · 32–6

WWWWDlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.6

-0.81 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:30 AM

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Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy
2nd · 2.60 PPG

FC Dallas North Academy
5th · 1.50 PPG

Fairview Soccer Park , Field 3B ↗

91%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.8 for, 1.6 against · 2.79 expected points)

Season so far	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy	FC Dallas North Academy
Position	2nd	5th
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-0	3-0-3
Points per game	2.60	1.50
Goals for / game	6.4	2.3
Goals against / game	1.2	2.8
Clean sheets	1	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	D W W W W	L W L L W
Biggest win	17–1 at Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos	4–1 vs Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos
Worst loss	—	0–6 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+3.03	-0.48
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.81	-0.35

Common opponents: Oklahoma Celtic Pre — we 4–0; they 2–0. SOLAR PRE- JAIME — we 4–2; they 3–2. OK Energy FC Pre II — we 6–2; they 3–5. Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos — we 17–1; they 4–1. SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN — we 1–1; they 0–6.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 91% chance; likely score 5–1.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas North Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy – FC Dallas North Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 2.67 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Draw 2.33 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	2nd— holds	3rd▼ down 1
Loss 2.17 PPG	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1	3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

58% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.6 average finish

1st 58%
2nd 28%
3rd 14%
4th <1%
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney	3.00 (+0.40)	2nd (2.50)	11 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection

How the results connect

20 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy to FC Dallas North Academy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

18 favour us

1 even

1 favour them

+6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.52 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 11:30 AM	FC Dallas North Academy 5th · 3-0-3 · GD -3	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	5–1	2.79	2.63	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 08:30 AM	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +16	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●●○○○ Lean win	59%	3–2	1.93	2.53	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 02:00 PM	DKSC Pre Camargo 6th · 2-1-2 · GD +4	Home Fairview Soccer Park	●○○○○ Favorable	82%	4–1	2.56	2.54	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney

+16

3.00

WWWWW

-0.99

+1.10

100%

2.1

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	7–1
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	3–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN · Sun Oct 25 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sun Nov 1 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	1–1	45%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	2–3	25%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy

+26

2.60

WWWWD

-0.81

+0.52

100%

1.6

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Oct 11	at	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	17–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	6–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	4–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	4–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Dallas North Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney · Sat Nov 7 vs DKSC Pre Camargo See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	3–2	59%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	4–1	82%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN

2.50

WWWD

+1.05

-1.21

100%

2.3

D	Sat Oct 17	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	1–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	6–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney · Sat Oct 31 at Oklahoma Celtic Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Oct 31	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	2–0	80%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	3–1	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Pre II

+11

1.63

WLDWW

-0.09

—

91%

4.1

FC Dallas North Academy

-3

1.50

WLLWL

-0.35

+1.71

5.7

L	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	3–5
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	0–6
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy · Sat Oct 31 vs DKSC Pre Camargo See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	1–5	4%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	2–2	32%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC Pre Camargo

1.40

WLLWD

-0.20

+0.47

5.3

D	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	3–3
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 20	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 12	vs	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 31 at FC Dallas North Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sat Nov 7 at Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	2–2	50%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	1–4	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR PRE- JAIME

-8

0.75

LLWL

-0.10

+0.50

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	0–6
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	2–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	2–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney · Sat Oct 31 vs Oklahoma Celtic Pre · Sun Nov 1 at DKSC Pre Camargo See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	2–1	56%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	1–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Oklahoma Celtic Pre

-14

0.50

LLLLW

+0.17

+0.14

7.7

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos (9th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	0–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	0–4
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	0–4

Next: Sat Oct 31 at SOLAR PRE- JAIME · Sat Oct 31 vs SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 31	at	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	1–2	24%
·	Sat Oct 31	vs	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Nido Dallas Pre Cavazos

-41

0.00

LLLLL

+0.47

+1.41

9.0

L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans Pre- McKinney (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Oct 11	vs	Atletico Dallas Youth Pre- Academy (2nd)	1–17
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Oklahoma Celtic Pre (8th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	SOLAR PRE- JAIME (7th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Pre II (4th)	0–6
L	Sat Sep 19	at	FC Dallas North Academy (5th)	1–4
L	Sat Sep 12	at	DKSC Pre Camargo (6th)	1–7

Next: Sat Nov 7 at SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 7	at	SOLAR PRE- KLASSEN (3rd)	0–6	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.62 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.