SWFL PREMIER FC PRE
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU11 · 9 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Nov 14, 11:30 AM
Lakewood Ranch Park, Field 9 SOUTH ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.2 for, 1.4 against · 1.88 expected points)
| Season so far | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | Lee County Premier PRE |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 1-0-2 | 1-2-2 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 2.2 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L W L | L D L D W |
| Biggest win | 5–0 at AC Florida West Pre | 2–1 at Fishhawk Premier FC Pre |
| Worst loss | 0–5 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 2–5 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.01 | -0.65 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.82 | -0.06 |
Common opponents: Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre — we 1–2; they 2–5. AC Florida West Pre — we 5–0; they 0–0. Florida Premier FC PRE- I — we 0–5; they 1–4.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Lee County Premier PRE average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 1 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 56% / draw 20% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Florida Premier FC PRE- II sit 4th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.A point moves us above Florida Premier FC PRE- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lee County Premier PRE game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (SWFL PREMIER FC PRE – Lee County Premier PRE) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Nov 9 – Sun Nov 15); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 0.75 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 8%
- 4th 48%
- 5th 24%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 6%
- 8th <1%
- 9th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 3.00 (+2.00) | 1st (2.91) | 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 2.40 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.16) | 36 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection |
| 3 | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 2.17 (+1.17) | 3rd (2.00) | 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection |
| 4 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 1.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.32) | A point next game |
How the results connect
11 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link SWFL PREMIER FC PRE to Lee County Premier PRE through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.30 · 6th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 14 11:30 AM |
Lee County Premier PRE 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.22 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 15 10:00 AM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
WALKER ROAD PARK |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.33 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 6 02:15 PM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–2 | 0.95 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 11:30 AM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +12 |
Away far trip
Pelican Soccer Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 18% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 10 12:30 PM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
2–1 | 2.03 | 1.29 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 09:00 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.42 | 1.41 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- I 1st · 7-0-0 · GD +47 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–5 | 0.09 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Jan 31 11:30 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -23 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
4–1 | 2.62 | 1.40 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 01:00 PM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away far trip
Starkey Ranch District Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
1–2 | 1.25 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 01:30 PM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 44% |
2–1 | 1.54 | 1.40 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 02:00 PM |
AC Florida West Pre 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -28 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.73 | 1.49 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 01:30 PM |
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Home Lakewood Ranch Park |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.17 | 1.47 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 11:00 AM |
Lee County Premier PRE 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Away far trip
Kelly Road Soccer Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
1–1 | 1.61 | 1.48 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 4 | +47 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.68 | -0.58 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 at Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sat Jan 23 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.48 | -0.19 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 6 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 at Lee County Premier PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWWW | -0.05 | -0.35 | 99% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Dec 12 at AC Florida West Pre · Sat Jan 23 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWDLL | -0.50 | +0.07 | 28% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 23 at AC Florida West Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.82 | -0.30 | 57% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lee County Premier PRE | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | WDLDL | -0.06 | +0.01 | 6% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Nov 14 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lakeland Premier FC PRE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +1.64 | -0.53 | 10% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AC Florida West Pre | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 29 | -28 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.98 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 13 vs Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Jan 9 vs Fishhawk Premier FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Fishhawk Premier FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 25 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.36 | -0.19 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 9 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.