Florida Premier FC PRE- I
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Florida BU11 · 9 teams · Florida Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:30 AM
Fishhawk Sports Complex, Field 11 ↗
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 8–0 (expected goals 8.7 for, 0.8 against · 2.99 expected points)
| Season so far | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | Fishhawk Premier FC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 9th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-0-0 | 0-0-4 |
| Points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 7.3 | 0.5 |
| Goals against / game | 0.6 | 6.3 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W W W | L L L L |
| Biggest win | 13–0 vs Fishhawk Premier FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | — | 0–13 at Florida Premier FC PRE- I |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +4.31 | -2.66 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.68 | +1.36 |
Already played this season: Sat Aug 29 13–0 vs Fishhawk Premier FC Pre (W)
Common opponents: Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre — we 6–1; they 1–5. Cape Coral SA Pre — we 7–2; they 0–5. Lee County Premier PRE — we 4–1; they 1–2.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre average 0.5 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 4.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre concede 6.2/game; worst result 0–13 at Florida Premier FC PRE- I.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 8–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Confidence is low on their side
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre have lost 4 straight (form: LLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:30 AM at Fishhawk Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Fishhawk Premier FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Florida Premier FC PRE- I – Fishhawk Premier FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.75 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Loss 2.63 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 8–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 100%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
- 7th
- 8th
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
How the results connect
11 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Florida Premier FC PRE- I to Fishhawk Premier FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.58 · 9th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 10:30 AM |
Fishhawk Premier FC Pre 9th · 0-0-4 · GD -23 |
Away Fishhawk Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 99% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 3.00 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
4–1 | 2.75 | 2.97 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 23 02:00 PM |
Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +7 |
Away far trip
North Collier Regional Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
4–1 | 2.64 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Jan 24 10:00 AM |
AC Florida West Pre 8th · 0-1-4 · GD -28 |
Away far trip
Bayshore Sports Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 100% |
8–0 | 2.99 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 01:00 PM |
SWFL PREMIER FC PRE 5th · 1-0-2 · GD -1 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–1 | 2.87 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 6 02:00 PM |
Lee County Premier PRE 6th · 1-2-2 · GD -5 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.92 | 2.94 | Bank it |
| Sun Mar 7 11:00 AM |
Cape Coral SA Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +12 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
5–1 | 2.69 | 2.92 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 10:30 AM |
Florida Premier FC PRE- II 4th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home Starkey Ranch District Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 94% |
5–0 | 2.85 | 2.91 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Lakeland Premier FC PRE 7th · 1-0-3 · GD -10 |
Away far trip
Hunt Fountain Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 96% |
5–0 | 2.91 | 2.91 | Bank it |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Florida Premier FC PRE- I | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 51 | 4 | +47 | 21 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.68 | -0.58 | 100% | 1.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Fishhawk Premier FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 at Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sat Jan 23 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Cape Coral SA Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | -0.48 | -0.19 | 100% | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 at Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 6 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 at Lee County Premier PRE See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 13 | 2.17 | LWWWW | -0.05 | -0.35 | 99% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Cape Coral SA Pre · Sat Dec 12 at AC Florida West Pre · Sat Jan 23 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Florida Premier FC PRE- II | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DWDLL | -0.50 | +0.07 | 28% | 5.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Fishhawk Premier FC Pre · Sat Dec 12 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 23 at AC Florida West Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | SWFL PREMIER FC PRE | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 | 1.00 | LWL | +0.82 | -0.30 | 57% | 4.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 14 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sun Dec 6 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Lee County Premier PRE | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | 1.00 | WDLDL | -0.06 | +0.01 | 6% | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Nov 14 at SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sat Dec 12 vs Cape Coral SA Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Lakeland Premier FC PRE | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 3 | 0.75 | LLWL | +1.64 | -0.53 | 10% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Lee County Premier PRE · Sun Nov 15 vs SWFL PREMIER FC PRE · Sun Dec 13 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | AC Florida West Pre | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 29 | -28 | 1 | 0.20 | LLDLL | +0.98 | -0.06 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Naples Elite Soccer Club NESC Pre · Sun Dec 13 vs Lakeland Premier FC PRE · Sat Jan 9 vs Fishhawk Premier FC Pre See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Fishhawk Premier FC Pre | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 25 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLL | +1.36 | -0.19 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- II · Sun Nov 1 vs Florida Premier FC PRE- I · Sat Jan 9 at AC Florida West Pre See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.47 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.