Great Falls Reston Soccer Club
ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU17 · 8 teams · Great Falls Reston Soccer Club (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
Westfield High School, Stadium ↗ · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.7 for, 1.1 against · 1.80 expected points)
| Season so far | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club | Virginia Valor FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 1-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 0.80 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | W L D W | L L D L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 at BRYC Academy | 2–0 vs VA Reign FC |
| Worst loss | 0–4 at Beach FC | 0–2 at Richmond United Blue |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.97 | -0.15 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.49 | +0.62 |
Common opponents: Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–1; they 1–2. Beach FC — we 0–4; they 0–1. VA Reign FC — we 5–0; they 2–0.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Virginia Valor FC average 0.8 goals/game (league avg 2.1); blanked in 2 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Beach FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 52% / draw 24% / loss 24%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Westfield High School.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Arlington Soccer Association sit 3rd on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.75.A win moves us above Arlington Soccer Association on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Virginia Valor FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Great Falls Reston Soccer Club – Virginia Valor FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.60 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 20%
- 4th 76%
- 5th 2%
- 6th 1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 3 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 3.00 (+1.25) | 1st (2.87) | 14 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Beach FC | 2.40 (+0.65) | 2nd (2.39) | 10 of 9 pts to pass their current pace, 10 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 2.00 (+0.25) | 3rd (1.97) | Win next game |
How the results connect
15 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Great Falls Reston Soccer Club to Virginia Valor FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.36 · 5th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Virginia Valor FC 6th · 1-1-3 · GD -2 |
Away Westfield High School · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 52% |
1–1 | 1.80 | 1.76 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 12:00 PM |
Stafford Revolution 5th · 1-2-3 · GD -11 |
Home Lake Fairfax Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–1 | 2.57 | 1.89 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Richmond United Blue 1st · 6-0-0 · GD +24 |
Home Ken Lawrence Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | +24 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.61 | +0.97 | 100% | 1.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Beach FC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1 | +18 | 12 | 2.40 | WLWWW | -0.21 | -0.23 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Arlington Soccer Association | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | +0.05 | -0.75 | 100% | 3.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 7 | 1.75 | WDLW | -0.49 | +0.36 | 96% | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Stafford Revolution | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 5 | 0.83 | LLDLW | -0.02 | +0.97 | 0% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Virginia Valor FC | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 4 | 0.80 | WLDLL | +0.62 | -1.29 | 4% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | VA Reign FC | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 21 | -16 | 4 | 0.67 | LLWLL | +0.06 | +2.05 | 0% | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
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| 8 | BRYC Academy | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 32 | -31 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.42 | +0.57 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.