Stafford Revolution
ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU16 · 8 teams · Stafford Soccer (all teams)
Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM
Lake Fairfax Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.1 for, 1.5 against · 1.75 expected points)
| Season so far | Stafford Revolution | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-1-2 | 1-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.67 | 0.75 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 1.3 | 1.8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W D L | L L L W |
| Biggest win | 7–0 vs BRYC Academy | 5–0 at BRYC Academy |
| Worst loss | 0–4 vs Arlington Soccer Association | 0–3 vs Arlington Soccer Association |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.81 | -0.10 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.24 | -0.36 |
Common opponents: VA Reign FC — we 5–0; they 1–2. Beach FC — we 1–1; they 1–2. Arlington Soccer Association — we 0–4; they 0–3. BRYC Academy — we 7–0; they 5–0.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Arlington Soccer Association.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 51% / draw 21% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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Confidence is low on their side
Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
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Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Lake Fairfax Park.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Stafford Revolution – Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Win 1.86 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.57 PPG |
4th— holds | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.43 PPG |
5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 77%
- 5th 6%
- 6th <1%
- 7th
- 8th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 1 remaining known games (max 1.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 3.00 (+1.33) | 1st (2.93) | 11 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 11 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Arlington Soccer Association | 2.40 (+0.73) | 2nd (2.39) | 7 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 7 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Beach FC | 2.00 (+0.33) | 3rd (1.90) | 4 of 3 pts to pass their current pace, 4 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
How the results connect
17 chains · 8 teams
Paths of results that link Stafford Revolution to Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
9 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.10 · 6th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM |
Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 6th · 1-0-3 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lake Fairfax Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–1 | 1.75 | 1.68 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richmond United Blue | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1 | +25 | 18 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.49 | -0.10 | 100% | 1.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Arlington Soccer Association | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 12 | 2.40 | WWLWW | +0.07 | -1.25 | 100% | 2.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Beach FC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 10 | 2.00 | WLDWW | -0.41 | +0.49 | 94% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Stafford Revolution | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 10 | 1.67 | LDWLW | -0.24 | -0.10 | 94% | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 1 future matchup ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | VA Reign FC | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 9 | 1.50 | WLWLW | -0.04 | +1.15 | 10% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC See all 1 future matchup ▸ |
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| 6 | Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 3 | 0.75 | WLLL | -0.36 | +0.48 | 2% | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Virginia Valor FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 20 | -18 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +1.13 | -1.87 | 0% | 7.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | BRYC Academy | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 33 | -32 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.73 | -0.06 | 0% | 7.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.