Richmond United Blue

ECNL Regional League Girls · Virginia GU16 · 8 teams · Richmond United (all teams)

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1st

6-0-0 record · 6 played

3.00 points per game

+25 goal diff · 26–1

WWWWWlast 5

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.0

-0.49 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 02:00 PM

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Richmond United Blue
1st · 3.00 PPG

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
6th · 0.75 PPG

Ken Lawrence Park, Field 1 ↗ far trip

81% 12%

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.9 for, 0.8 against · 2.54 expected points)

Season so far	Richmond United Blue	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL
Position	1st	6th
Record (W-D-L)	6-0-0	1-0-3
Points per game	3.00	0.75
Goals for / game	4.3	1.8
Goals against / game	0.2	1.8
Clean sheets	5	1
Held scoreless	0	1
Form (recent first)	W W W W W	L L L W
Biggest win	8–0 vs BRYC Academy	5–0 at BRYC Academy
Worst loss	—	0–3 vs Arlington Soccer Association
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+2.54	-0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.49	-0.36

Common opponents: Beach FC — we 2–0; they 1–2. Arlington Soccer Association — we 1–0; they 0–3. BRYC Academy — we 8–0; they 5–0. VA Reign FC — we 5–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 81% chance; likely score 2–0.
Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
Confidence is low on their side
Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL have lost 3 straight (form: WLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 02:00 PM at Ken Lawrence Park.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Richmond United Blue – Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.71 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

99% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.0 average finish

1st 99%
2nd 1%
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

17 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Richmond United Blue to Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

16 favour us

1 favour them

+4.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

9 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.10 · 5th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Nov 1 02:00 PM	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL 6th · 1-0-3 · GD +0	Away far trip Ken Lawrence Park	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	2–0	2.54	2.93	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Richmond United Blue

+25

3.00

WWWWW

-0.49

-0.10

100%

1.0

W	Sat Oct 17	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	BRYC Academy (8th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	7–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Stafford Revolution (4th)	3–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	2–0	81%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Arlington Soccer Association

+14

2.40

WWLWW

+0.07

-1.25

100%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	7–2
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Stafford Revolution (4th)	4–0
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–1
W	Sun Sep 20	at	VA Reign FC (5th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	3–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at BRYC Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Beach FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	BRYC Academy (8th)	6–0	98%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Beach FC

+11

2.00

WLDWW

-0.41

+0.49

93%

3.1

W	Sun Oct 4	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	2–1
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Stafford Revolution (4th)	1–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	BRYC Academy (8th)	10–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at VA Reign FC · Sun Nov 1 at Arlington Soccer Association See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	VA Reign FC (5th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	1–2	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Stafford Revolution

1.67

LDWLW

-0.24

-0.10

94%

3.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	BRYC Academy (8th)	7–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Beach FC (3rd)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Richmond United Blue (1st)	1–3
W	Sun Aug 30	at	VA Reign FC (5th)	5–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	2–1	51%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

VA Reign FC

-8

1.50

WLWLW

-0.04

+1.15

11%

5.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–5
W	Sun Sep 27	at	BRYC Academy (8th)	3–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	1–4
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Stafford Revolution (4th)	0–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Beach FC See all 1 future matchup ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	1–2	13%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL

0.75

WLLL

-0.36

+0.48

5.9

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Beach FC (3rd)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	0–3
W	Sun Sep 13	at	BRYC Academy (8th)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Virginia Valor FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Stafford Revolution · Sun Nov 1 vs Richmond United Blue See all 3 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Stafford Revolution (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–2	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Virginia Valor FC

-18

0.00

LLLLL

+1.13

-1.87

7.2

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	2–7
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Beach FC (3rd)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Stafford Revolution (4th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–7
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL · Sun Nov 1 at BRYC Academy See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	BRYC Academy (8th)	2–1	57%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

BRYC Academy

-32

0.00

LLLLL

+0.73

-0.06

7.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Stafford Revolution (4th)	0–7
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Richmond United Blue (1st)	0–8
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	VA Reign FC (5th)	1–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Great Falls Reston Soccer Club RL (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Beach FC (3rd)	0–10

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Arlington Soccer Association · Sun Nov 1 vs Virginia Valor FC See all 2 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Arlington Soccer Association (2nd)	0–6	0%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Virginia Valor FC (7th)	1–2	24%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.11 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.