Lonestar SAT

ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU18/19 · 14 teams · Lonestar SAT (all teams)

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4th

7-1-1 record · 9 played

2.44 points per game

+17 goal diff · 26–9

WLWWWlast 5

68% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.8

-0.36 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Lonestar SAT
4th · 2.44 PPG

FC Dallas Youth
1st · 3.00 PPG

Toyota Soccer Center, Field 10 ↗ far trip

30% 20% 50%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.7 for, 2.2 against · 1.10 expected points)

Season so far	Lonestar SAT	FC Dallas Youth
Position	4th	1st
Record (W-D-L)	7-1-1	3-0-0
Points per game	2.44	3.00
Goals for / game	2.9	4.7
Goals against / game	1.0	0.7
Clean sheets	4	1
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W W L W	W W W
Biggest win	6–1 vs FC Westlake White	7–1 vs OK Energy FC Texas
Worst loss	0–4 at SOLAR SC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.23	+1.69
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.36	-0.69

Common opponents: OK Energy FC Texas — we 3–1; they 7–1. West Side Alliance — we 4–1; they 5–0.

Game plan

Respect their attack
FC Dallas Youth score 4.7/game — well above the league's 1.8.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Hard to break down
FC Dallas Youth concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).
Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at SOLAR SC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 30%; a draw (20%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
They arrive in form
FC Dallas Youth have won 3 straight.
Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.
Away game
Kickoff 09:00 AM at Toyota Soccer Center.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.
Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
What a win does
Sting Black sit 3rd on 2.50 PPG; we are on 2.44.
A win moves us above Sting Black on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Dallas Youth game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Lonestar SAT – FC Dallas Youth) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 2.20 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2
Win 2.50 PPG	2nd▲ up 2	3rd▲ up 1	3rd▲ up 1
Draw 2.30 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2
Loss 2.20 PPG	4th— holds	4th— holds	6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 1–2 loss we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st

68% top 4

32% below the top 4

3.8 average finish

1st 2%
2nd 18%
3rd 25%
4th 23%
5th 19%
6th 11%
7th 2%
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 4 remaining known games (max 2.62 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Dallas Youth	3.00 (+0.56)	2nd (2.27)	17 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 8 for their projection
2	SOLAR SC	2.75 (+0.31)	1st (2.58)	14 of 12 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
3	Sting Black	2.50 (+0.06)	4th (2.10)	Win next game

How the results connect

11 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Lonestar SAT to FC Dallas Youth through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us

1 even

9 favour them

-1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

14 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.74 · 1st hardest of 14

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM	FC Dallas Youth 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12	Away far trip Toyota Soccer Center	●●●●○ Tough	30%	1–2	1.10	2.31	Upside
Sun Oct 25 03:00 PM	Sting Royal 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +3	Away far trip Sting National Training Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	51%	2–1	1.75	2.26	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM	Albion Hurricanes FC 5th · 5-0-2 · GD +13	Away far trip New Territory Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	1–1	1.28	2.18	Upside
Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM	Challenge 8th · 3-0-4 · GD -2	Away far trip Burroughs Park	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	2–1	2.11	2.17	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Dallas Youth

+12

3.00

WWW

-0.69

+0.11

81%

2.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Royal See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	5–0	96%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Challenge (8th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Sting Black (3rd)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	DKSC (14th)	3–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	3–0	88%
·	Sat May 8	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

SOLAR SC

+21

2.75

WWWDW

-0.20

+0.06

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	6–1
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 11	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	4–1
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	4–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	DKSC (14th)	3–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Aug 22	at	Challenge (8th)	2–0

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black · Sat Dec 5 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 13 at West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	2–0	68%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Dec 13	at	West Side Alliance (12th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Sting Royal (7th)	2–0	65%
·	Sat May 8	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–1	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Black

2.50

WWWWL

-0.03

-0.01

51%

4.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Lonestar SAT (4th)	0–5
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Westlake White (10th)	5–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Challenge (8th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	West Side Alliance (12th)	2–1	74%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–2	14%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sat May 1	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun May 2	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat May 8	vs	DKSC (14th)	3–0	88%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar SAT

+17

2.44

WLWWW

-0.36

+0.74

68%

3.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	DKSC (14th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–4
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	6–1
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 5	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	3–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Royal · Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Sting Royal (7th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Challenge (8th)	2–1	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Albion Hurricanes FC

+13

2.14

WWLWW

-0.47

+0.37

45%

4.6

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	4–0
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Sting Black (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	DKSC (14th)	5–0
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Challenge (8th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Aug 22	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	5–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar SAT See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–1	42%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	4–0	92%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	2–1	59%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–1	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake Blue

+13

2.14

WDWDD

-0.35

+0.37

53%

4.3

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–1
D	Sat Oct 17	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	8–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	West Side Alliance (12th)	2–1
W	Sat Aug 29	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Challenge (8th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–1	39%
·	Sat May 1	vs	DKSC (14th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	2–1	53%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Sting Royal

1.50

LWWL

+0.02

+0.03

7.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	3–1
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	3–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Sting Black (3rd)	2–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake White · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–2	20%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Nov 22	at	Challenge (8th)	1–1	48%
·	Sat Dec 5	at	DKSC (14th)	2–0	76%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–2	15%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Challenge

-2

1.29

LLWWL

-0.27

+0.37

8.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	2–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	DKSC (14th)	2–0
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Sting Black (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	0–3
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Dallas Texans (11th)	4–1
L	Sat Aug 22	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake White See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	0–2	12%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	1–1	36%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	2–1	69%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–2	17%
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 22	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	1–1	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lonestar ATX Royal

-4

1.00

DWLLL

-0.15

+0.37

9.0

L	Sun Oct 18	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–6
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	0–3
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	West Side Alliance (12th)	3–3
W	Sat Sep 19	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	2–1
L	Sat Aug 29	vs	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	0–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 6 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Challenge (8th)	1–1	42%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	1–2	28%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 2	vs	DKSC (14th)	2–0	73%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Westlake White

-22

1.00

LWLLW

-0.04

+0.74

11.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	DKSC (14th)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–8
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–6
W	Sun Sep 6	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	3–2
L	Sat Sep 5	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Royal · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Sting Royal (7th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Challenge (8th)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	0–4	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Dallas Texans

-11

0.78

LLLWD

+0.24

-0.13

10.4

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	3–2
L	Sun Oct 11	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	1–4
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Lonestar SAT (4th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	FC Westlake White (10th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	0–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	DKSC (14th)	3–0
L	Sun Aug 23	at	Challenge (8th)	1–4
L	Sat Aug 22	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–5

Next: Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 6 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Apr 24 at FC Dallas Youth See all 4 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Nov 21	vs	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	2–1	54%
·	Sun Dec 6	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–3	4%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Royal (7th)	1–2	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

West Side Alliance

-14

0.50

DLLLL

+0.40

-0.27

11.5

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Challenge (8th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Sting Royal (7th)	0–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 6	at	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–4
W	Sat Sep 5	at	FC Westlake White (10th)	2–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC Texas See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	DKSC (14th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	1–2	12%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	1–1	40%
·	Sun Dec 6	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Dec 13	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

OK Energy FC Texas

-19

0.38

LLLLW

+0.40

-0.19

12.3

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Challenge (8th)	1–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Sting Royal (7th)	1–3
L	Sat Sep 26	at	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	1–7
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	1–5
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 6	at	FC Westlake White (10th)	2–3
L	Sat Sep 5	at	Lonestar SAT (4th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Sting Black (3rd)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	DKSC (14th)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	West Side Alliance (12th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 21	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–3	3%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

DKSC

-15

0.00

LLLLL

+0.19

+0.14

13.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Westlake White (10th)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Lonestar SAT (4th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Challenge (8th)	0–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Albion Hurricanes FC (5th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	SOLAR SC (2nd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Dallas Texans (11th)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sat Dec 5 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	West Side Alliance (12th)	0–1	20%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	OK Energy FC Texas (13th)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Dec 5	vs	Sting Royal (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	FC Dallas Youth (1st)	0–3	3%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Westlake Blue (6th)	0–3	3%
·	Sun May 2	at	Lonestar ATX Royal (9th)	0–2	11%
·	Sat May 8	at	Sting Black (3rd)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.