FC Westlake Blue
ECNL Regional League Girls · Texas GU18/19 · 14 teams · FC Westlake (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
Onion Creek Soccer Complex, Field 10 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.9 against · 2.30 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Westlake Blue | Challenge |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-3-0 | 3-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.14 | 1.29 |
| Goals for / game | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 1 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | D D W D W | L W W L L |
| Biggest win | 8–1 vs FC Westlake White | 4–1 vs Dallas Texans |
| Worst loss | — | 0–3 vs Albion Hurricanes FC |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.16 | -0.29 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.35 | -0.27 |
Common opponents: West Side Alliance — we 2–1; they 2–0. OK Energy FC Texas — we 5–1; they 0–1. SOLAR SC — we 0–0; they 0–2. Dallas Texans — we 1–1; they 4–1.
Game plan
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 at SOLAR SC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 71% chance; likely score 2–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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What a win does
Albion Hurricanes FC sit 5th on 2.14 PPG; we are on 2.14.A point moves us above Albion Hurricanes FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Challenge game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Westlake Blue – Challenge) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Draw 2.00 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 6th— holds |
| Loss 1.88 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 1%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 18%
- 4th 20%
- 5th 20%
- 6th 22%
- 7th 6%
- 8th <1%
- 9th
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
- 14th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 6 remaining known games (max 2.54 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Dallas Youth | 3.00 (+0.86) | 2nd (2.27) | 24 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection |
| 2 | SOLAR SC | 2.75 (+0.61) | 1st (2.58) | 21 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Sting Black | 2.50 (+0.36) | 4th (2.10) | 18 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 4 | Lonestar SAT | 2.44 (+0.30) | 3rd (2.17) | 17 of 18 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection |
| 5 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 2.14 (+0.00) | 6th (2.01) | A point next game |
How the results connect
29 chains · 10 teams
Paths of results that link FC Westlake Blue to Challenge through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
14 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.37 · 5th hardest of 14
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Challenge 8th · 3-0-4 · GD -2 |
Home Onion Creek Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 71% |
2–0 | 2.30 | 2.16 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 10:30 AM |
Albion Hurricanes FC 5th · 5-0-2 · GD +13 |
Home Westlake High School Stadium - Chaparral Stadium · turf? |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
1–1 | 1.53 | 2.09 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 11:00 AM |
Sting Royal 7th · 2-0-2 · GD +3 |
Home Onion Creek Soccer Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 2.08 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 8 11:00 AM |
FC Dallas Youth 1st · 3-0-0 · GD +12 |
Home Ann Richards School |
●●●●○ Tough | 39% |
1–1 | 1.38 | 2.02 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
DKSC 14th · 0-0-6 · GD -15 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 90% |
3–0 | 2.76 | 2.08 | Bank it |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Sting Black 3rd · 5-0-1 · GD +8 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.80 | 2.06 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Dallas Youth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 9 | 3.00 | WWW | -0.69 | +0.11 | 79% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Lonestar SAT · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Westlake White · Sat Nov 7 at Lonestar ATX Royal See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | SOLAR SC | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 2 | +21 | 22 | 2.75 | WWWDW | -0.20 | +0.06 | 100% | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Sting Black · Sat Dec 5 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 13 at West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Sting Black | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWL | -0.03 | -0.01 | 54% | 4.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Oct 25 at West Side Alliance · Sat Nov 21 at SOLAR SC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Lonestar SAT | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 9 | +17 | 22 | 2.44 | WLWWW | -0.36 | +0.74 | 71% | 3.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Dallas Youth · Sun Oct 25 at Sting Royal · Sat Nov 7 at Albion Hurricanes FC See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Albion Hurricanes FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 15 | 2.14 | WWLWW | -0.47 | +0.37 | 42% | 4.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sun Oct 25 at FC Westlake Blue · Sat Nov 7 vs Lonestar SAT See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FC Westlake Blue | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 15 | 2.14 | WDWDD | -0.35 | +0.37 | 51% | 4.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Challenge · Sun Oct 25 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Sting Royal See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Sting Royal | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 6 | 1.50 | LWWL | +0.02 | +0.03 | 3% | 6.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Westlake White · Sun Oct 25 vs Lonestar SAT · Sat Nov 7 at FC Westlake Blue See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Challenge | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 | 1.29 | LLWWL | -0.27 | +0.37 | 0% | 8.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at FC Westlake Blue · Sun Oct 25 at Lonestar ATX Royal · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Westlake White See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Lonestar ATX Royal | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 7 | 1.00 | DWLLL | -0.15 | +0.37 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Albion Hurricanes FC · Sun Oct 25 vs Challenge · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Dallas Youth See all 6 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | FC Westlake White | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 31 | -22 | 9 | 1.00 | LWLLW | -0.04 | +0.74 | 0% | 11.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Sting Royal · Sun Oct 25 at FC Dallas Youth · Sat Nov 7 at Challenge See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Dallas Texans | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 7 | 0.78 | LLLWD | +0.24 | -0.13 | 0% | 10.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Nov 21 vs OK Energy FC Texas · Sun Dec 6 vs West Side Alliance · Sat Apr 24 at FC Dallas Youth See all 4 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | West Side Alliance | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 4 | 0.50 | DLLLL | +0.40 | -0.27 | 0% | 11.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs DKSC · Sun Oct 25 vs Sting Black · Sat Nov 7 at OK Energy FC Texas See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | OK Energy FC Texas | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 27 | -19 | 3 | 0.38 | LLLLW | +0.40 | -0.19 | 0% | 12.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Sting Black · Sun Oct 25 vs DKSC · Sat Nov 7 vs West Side Alliance See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | DKSC | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 16 | -15 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.19 | +0.14 | 0% | 13.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at West Side Alliance · Sun Oct 25 at OK Energy FC Texas · Sat Dec 5 vs Sting Royal See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.81 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.