CESA Liberty
ECNL Regional League Girls · Southeast GU16 · 9 teams · Carolina Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 31, 04:00 PM
Georgia Sports Park , field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.4 against · 0.54 expected points)
| Season so far | CESA Liberty | Concorde Fire Platinum |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-5 | 3-1-3 |
| Points per game | 1.09 | 1.43 |
| Goals for / game | 1.3 | 2.7 |
| Goals against / game | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 3 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | L D D L D | D W W L L |
| Biggest win | 2–1 vs Concorde Fire Premier | 6–0 at Concorde Fire Premier |
| Worst loss | 0–5 at Alabama FC | 1–4 vs Atlanta Fire United |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -0.68 | +0.51 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.08 | -0.30 |
Already played this season: Sat Sep 12 2–1 vs Concorde Fire Platinum (W)
Common opponents: Concorde Fire Premier — we 2–1, 1–1; they 6–0. Atlanta Fire United — we 2–2; they 1–4, 2–2. United Futbol Academy — we 0–1; they 4–0, 3–2. South Carolina United — we 2–2; they 2–3.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
Concorde Fire Platinum score 2.7/game — well above the league's 1.4.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Charlotte SA Gold, 0–1 at United Futbol Academy, 0–5 at Alabama FC.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Georgia Sports Park .Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Concorde Fire Platinum game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (CESA Liberty – Concorde Fire Platinum) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.25 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Draw 1.08 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 | 8th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 6th even if every rival loses, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd <1%
- 4th 1%
- 5th 5%
- 6th 13%
- 7th 27%
- 8th 54%
- 9th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 5 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte SA Gold | 2.75 (+1.66) | 1st (2.40) | 32 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 1.78 (+0.69) | 3rd (1.56) | 17 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 13 for their projection |
| 3 | Alabama FC | 1.75 (+0.66) | 2nd (1.87) | 16 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 4 | South Carolina United | 1.45 (+0.36) | 5th (1.46) | 12 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
| 5 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 1.43 (+0.34) | 4th (1.48) | 11 of 15 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection |
How the results connect
66 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link CESA Liberty to Concorde Fire Platinum through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
15 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.15 · 4th hardest of 9
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 31 04:00 PM |
Concorde Fire Platinum 5th · 3-1-3 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Georgia Sports Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.05 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 TBD |
GSA 8th · 1-5-2 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–1 | 0.92 | 1.04 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 02:00 PM |
Atlanta Fire United 7th · 2-3-4 · GD +3 |
Home Wenwood |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.96 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sat Dec 12 03:00 PM |
South Carolina United 4th · 4-4-3 · GD +2 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–1 | 1.01 | 1.03 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 20 03:00 PM |
United Futbol Academy 2nd · 5-1-3 · GD -1 |
Home Mesa Soccer Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 30% |
1–1 | 1.15 | 1.04 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Charlotte SA Gold | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 4 | +14 | 22 | 2.75 | WWDWW | -0.25 | +0.01 | 100% | 1.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Oct 25 vs GSA · Sat Nov 14 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | United Futbol Academy | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 16 | 1.78 | LWWLW | +0.06 | -0.00 | 68% | 4.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sat Oct 31 at Alabama FC · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Premier See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Alabama FC | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 14 | 1.75 | WDLWW | +0.03 | -0.16 | 98% | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 vs Concorde Fire Premier · Sat Oct 31 vs United Futbol Academy · Sun Nov 1 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | South Carolina United | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 | 1.45 | LWDLW | -0.00 | -0.02 | 52% | 4.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at GSA · Sun Nov 1 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 15 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Concorde Fire Platinum | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 10 | 1.43 | LLWWD | -0.30 | +0.16 | 59% | 4.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs CESA Liberty · Sun Nov 1 vs South Carolina United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | CESA Liberty | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 24 | -10 | 12 | 1.09 | DLDDL | +0.08 | +0.15 | 2% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Platinum · Sun Nov 1 at GSA · Sat Nov 14 vs Atlanta Fire United See all 5 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Atlanta Fire United | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 9 | 1.00 | LDLDD | +0.06 | -0.08 | 15% | 6.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at United Futbol Academy · Sat Oct 31 at Concorde Fire Premier · Sun Nov 1 at Alabama FC See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | GSA | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 8 | +0 | 8 | 1.00 | LDDDL | -0.17 | +0.21 | 7% | 6.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Charlotte SA Gold · Sat Oct 31 vs South Carolina United · Sun Nov 1 vs CESA Liberty See all 8 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Concorde Fire Premier | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 25 | -22 | 2 | 0.22 | DLLDL | +0.08 | +0.47 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 10 at Alabama FC · Sat Oct 31 vs Atlanta Fire United · Sun Nov 1 vs United Futbol Academy See all 7 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.