Tennessee SC
ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU17 · 8 teams · Tennessee SC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 12, 11:00 AM
Bethesda Sports Park, Field 2 ↗
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Tennessee SC | Mercury |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Mercury average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Racing Louisville Academy sit 7th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Racing Louisville Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Mercury game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Tennessee SC – Mercury) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 4 other games that week (Mon Dec 7 – Sun Dec 13); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 7 | 1st▲ up 7 | 7th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 6 | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 12%
- 2nd 12%
- 3rd 12%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 13%
- 6th 12%
- 7th 11%
- 8th 12%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Pride Elite | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Indy Eleven | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Mercury | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Ohio Elite SA | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 6 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 12 11:00 AM |
Mercury 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Dec 13 TBD |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 19 11:00 AM |
Racing Louisville Academy 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home Bethesda Sports Park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Feb 14 TBD |
Ohio Galaxies FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Racing Louisville Academy 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.52 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
Mercury 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.48 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Lexington Sporting Club Youth Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Indy Eleven 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.48 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.46 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 10:00 AM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away far trip
Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
Indy Eleven 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.42 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Pride Elite | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Dec 19 at Indy Eleven · Sat Mar 6 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Indy Eleven | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Ohio Elite SA · Sat Dec 19 vs FC Pride Elite · Sat Mar 6 at Mercury See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 at Mercury · Sat Dec 12 at Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Dec 13 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Mercury | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Nov 21 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Dec 12 at Tennessee SC · Sun Dec 13 at Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Ohio Elite SA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Indy Eleven · Sat Dec 19 vs Ohio Galaxies FC · Sat Feb 13 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at FC Pride Elite · Sat Dec 19 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Feb 13 at Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Racing Louisville Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sun Dec 13 vs Mercury · Sat Dec 19 at Tennessee SC See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Tennessee SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Mercury · Sun Dec 13 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Dec 19 vs Racing Louisville Academy See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.