Racing Louisville Academy
ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 8 teams · LouCity / Racing Youth Academy (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Athletes in Action Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗ far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.6 against · 0.44 expected points)
| Season so far | Racing Louisville Academy | Ohio Galaxies FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 8th | 4th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-1-6 | 4-0-3 |
| Points per game | 0.14 | 1.71 |
| Goals for / game | 0.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 4.7 | 2.3 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 5 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | L D L L L | W L L W W |
| Biggest win | — | 1–0 vs Pittsburgh Riverhounds |
| Worst loss | 0–11 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy | 2–7 vs Ohio Elite SA |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -2.87 | -0.83 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.48 | +1.78 |
Common opponents: Pittsburgh Riverhounds — we 1–1; they 1–0. WNY Flash — we 0–3; they 2–1.
Game plan
-
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 5 time(s): 0–11 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy, 0–5 at Mercury, 0–3 vs Indy Eleven, 0–4 vs Tennessee SC, 0–3 vs WNY Flash.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 11%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 04:00 PM at Athletes in Action Sports Complex.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Ohio Galaxies FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Racing Louisville Academy – Ohio Galaxies FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 0.13 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Win 0.50 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Draw 0.25 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
| Loss 0.13 PPG |
8th— holds | 8th— holds | 8th— holds |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th <1%
- 7th 1%
- 8th 99%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 1.89 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Elite SA | 2.50 (+2.36) | 2nd (2.21) | 44 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy | 2.29 (+2.15) | 1st (2.40) | 41 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 2.17 (+2.03) | 3rd (1.88) | 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection |
| 4 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 1.71 (+1.57) | 6th (1.26) | 30 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection |
| 5 | Tennessee SC | 1.57 (+1.43) | 5th (1.52) | 28 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 6 | Mercury | 1.43 (+1.29) | 4th (1.56) | 25 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
| 7 | FC Pride Elite | 1.00 (+0.86) | 7th (0.95) | 17 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection |
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.40 · 1st hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Athletes in Action Sports Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.44 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sun Oct 25 02:45 PM |
Ohio Elite SA 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +24 |
Away far trip
Ohio Elite Training Center |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
1–7 | 0.04 | 0.16 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 03:00 PM |
NWI Lions United |
Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.18 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 15 11:00 AM |
Indiana Elite FC |
Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.36 | 0.20 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
FC Pride Elite 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -9 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–3 | 0.45 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 11:00 AM |
Indy Eleven 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6 |
Away far trip
Grand Park |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
0–4 | 0.16 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 03:00 PM |
Ohio Galaxies FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.65 | 0.25 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
Ohio Elite SA 1st · 5-0-1 · GD +24 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 2% |
1–6 | 0.08 | 0.24 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:00 PM |
Lexington Sporting Club Academy 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +21 |
Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 1% |
0–5 | 0.05 | 0.22 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Mercury 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3 |
Home Lynn Family Sports Vision & Training Facility |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–3 | 0.33 | 0.23 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
Tennessee SC 5th · 3-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 5% |
0–3 | 0.23 | 0.23 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio Elite SA | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 34 | 10 | +24 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWW | -0.83 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Lexington Sporting Club Academy | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 6 | +21 | 16 | 2.29 | WWDWW | -0.52 | -0.06 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 20 at Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs GTFC Impact See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 13 | 2.17 | DWWWL | -0.13 | +0.07 | 93% | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Ohio Galaxies FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 12 | 1.71 | WWLLW | +1.78 | +0.08 | 11% | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | Tennessee SC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 | 1.57 | DWWDL | -0.17 | +0.12 | 43% | 4.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 at Mercury · Sun Sep 20 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | Mercury | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 10 | 1.43 | LWDLW | -0.14 | +0.09 | 53% | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 13 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | FC Pride Elite | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 | 1.00 | WLLLL | +0.20 | +0.22 | 1% | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Internationals SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | Racing Louisville Academy | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 33 | -29 | 1 | 0.14 | LLLDL | +0.48 | +0.40 | 0% | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 14 vs NWI Lions United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.