Ohio Elite SA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU14 · 8 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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1st

5-0-1 record · 6 played

2.50 points per game

+24 goal diff · 34–10

WWWWlast 4

100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.9

-0.83 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 02:45 PM

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Ohio Elite SA
1st · 2.50 PPG

Tennessee SC
5th · 1.57 PPG

Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 11 ↗

66% 15% 19%

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.1 for, 1.7 against · 2.13 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Elite SA	Tennessee SC
Position	1st	5th
Record (W-D-L)	5-0-1	3-2-2
Points per game	2.50	1.57
Goals for / game	5.7	1.7
Goals against / game	1.7	1.6
Clean sheets	2	2
Held scoreless	0	2
Form (recent first)	W W W W	L D W W D
Biggest win	10–0 vs Indiana Elite FC	4–0 at Racing Louisville Academy
Worst loss	—	1–5 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+1.78	+0.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	-0.83	-0.17

Common opponents: WNY Flash — we 5–0; they 1–1.

Game plan

Swing game — small margins
Win 66% / draw 15% / loss 19%.
Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Tennessee SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Win · 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Win 2.57 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Draw 2.29 PPG	1st— holds	1st— holds	1st— holds
Loss 2.14 PPG	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2	3rd▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

32% finish 1st

100% top 4

0% below the top 4

1.9 average finish

1st 32%
2nd 51%
3rd 16%
4th 2%
5th <1%
6th
7th <1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 8th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 02:45 PM	Tennessee SC 5th · 3-2-2 · GD +1	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●●○○○ Lean win	66%	3–1	2.13	2.45	Swing game
Sun Oct 25 02:45 PM	Racing Louisville Academy 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -29	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●○○○○ Favorable	98%	7–1	2.95	2.51	Bank it
Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM	Indy Eleven 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.60	2.41	Swing game
Sat Nov 7 03:45 PM	FC Pride Elite 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -9	Home Seven Hills School	●○○○○ Favorable	89%	5–1	2.72	2.44	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 02:30 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Home Seven Hills School	●●○○○ Lean win	75%	4–2	2.36	2.43	Bank it
Sat Mar 13 06:00 PM	Mercury 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3	Home Seven Hills School	●●○○○ Lean win	64%	3–1	2.08	2.40	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 05:00 PM	Lexington Sporting Club Academy 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +21	Home Seven Hills School	●●●●○ Tough	30%	2–3	1.06	2.30	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Tennessee SC 5th · 3-2-2 · GD +1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	55%	2–1	1.84	2.27	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Racing Louisville Academy 8th · 0-1-6 · GD -29	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	96%	6–1	2.89	2.31	Bank it
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Indy Eleven 3rd · 4-1-1 · GD +6	Home	●●○○○ Lean win	58%	2–1	1.91	2.28	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	FC Pride Elite 7th · 2-0-4 · GD -9	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	81%	4–2	2.53	2.30	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Mercury 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +3	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	2–2	1.78	2.27	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Lexington Sporting Club Academy 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +21	Away	●●●●● Very tough	20%	2–3	0.76	2.19	Upside
Sat May 8 02:45 PM	Ohio Galaxies FC 4th · 4-0-3 · GD -7	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●○○○○ Favorable	85%	4–1	2.64	2.21	Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Ohio Elite SA

+24

2.50

WWWW

-0.83

-0.12

100%

1.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	4–2
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	10–0
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	7–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (—)	5–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	3–1	66%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	7–1	98%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	4–2	75%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Mercury (6th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	2–3	30%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	2–1	55%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	6–1	96%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	4–2	81%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mercury (6th)	2–2	53%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	2–3	20%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	4–1	85%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy

+21

2.29

WWDWW

-0.52

-0.06

100%

1.4

W	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	3–0
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	7–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mercury (6th)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	11–0

Next: Sun Sep 20 at Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs GTFC Impact See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	2–1	67%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	3–1	85%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	3–2	53%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mercury (6th)	2–1	65%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	4–1	90%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	3–2	65%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Internationals SC (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	4–1	83%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	5–1	93%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	2–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven

2.17

DWWWL

-0.13

+0.07

93%

3.1

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–3
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury (6th)	3–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	4–1
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–0
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	0–0
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	4–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC (—)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	2–2	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–1	49%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	4–0	91%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–2	25%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	3–1	73%
·	Sat May 15	at	Mercury (6th)	1–1	39%
·	Sun May 16	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC

-7

1.71

WWLLW

+1.78

+0.08

11%

5.7

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	2–1
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	0–4
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	2–7
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (—)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	2–2	38%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–2	21%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–3	6%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Mercury (6th)	1–2	26%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–1	68%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–2	20%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	2–2	49%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–2	15%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–4	4%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mercury (6th)	1–2	18%
·	Sat May 8	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–4	7%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tennessee SC

1.57

DWWDL

-0.17

+0.12

43%

4.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash (—)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	4–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	2–1
D	Sat Sep 26	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	0–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–5
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mercury (6th)	4–1

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Mercury · Sun Sep 20 vs Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Mercury (6th)	1–1	32%
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	16%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	2–1	50%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	2–1	57%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	62%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury

1.43

LWDLW

-0.14

+0.09

53%

4.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–3
D	Sat Sep 26	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	5–0
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–4

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	2–1	52%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	55%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–1	82%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	2–2	29%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–1	64%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	2–1	52%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Internationals SC (—)	2–1	52%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	3–1	69%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

-9

1.00

WLLLL

+0.20

+0.22

6.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury (6th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–7
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–4
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–2
W	Sat Sep 26	at	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	6–3
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Internationals SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Internationals SC (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–2	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	2–3	29%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (8th)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	1–2	25%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	2–2	33%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	2–4	10%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	1–3	13%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun May 16	at	Mercury (6th)	1–3	16%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Louisville Academy

-29

0.14

LLLDL

+0.48

+0.40

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	WNY Flash (—)	0–3
D	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–1
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Tennessee SC (5th)	0–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Indy Eleven (3rd)	0–3
L	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Pride Elite (7th)	3–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Mercury (6th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–11

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 14 vs NWI Lions United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–7	1%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	1–3	9%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Pride Elite (7th)	1–3	11%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Indy Eleven (3rd)	0–4	3%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (4th)	1–3	17%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Elite SA (1st)	1–6	2%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mercury (6th)	1–3	7%
·	Sat May 1	at	Tennessee SC (5th)	0–3	5%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.