Ohio Elite SA

ECNL Regional League Girls · Ohio Valley GU13 · 8 teams · Ohio Elite Soccer Academy (all teams)

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3rd

4-1-1 record · 6 played

2.17 points per game

+12 goal diff · 18–6

WLWWlast 4

87% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.3

+0.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:15 PM

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Ohio Elite SA
3rd · 2.17 PPG

Tennessee SC
1st · 2.43 PPG

Ohio Elite Training Center, Field 11 ↗

23% 19% 58%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.4 against · 0.88 expected points)

Season so far	Ohio Elite SA	Tennessee SC
Position	3rd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	4-1-1	5-2-0
Points per game	2.17	2.43
Goals for / game	3.0	3.9
Goals against / game	1.0	1.0
Clean sheets	0	2
Held scoreless	1	0
Form (recent first)	W W L W	D W W W W
Biggest win	10–1 vs Indiana Elite FC	8–0 vs FC Pride Elite
Worst loss	0–1 at Ohio Galaxies FC	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.46	+1.75
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.13	-0.23

Common opponents: WNY Flash — we 3–2; they 7–2.

Game plan

Respect their attack
Tennessee SC score 3.9/game — well above the league's 1.4.
Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Ohio Galaxies FC.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Tennessee SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Ohio Elite SA – Tennessee SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Win 2.29 PPG	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1	2nd▲ up 1
Draw 2.00 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds
Loss 1.86 PPG	3rd— holds	3rd— holds	3rd— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

3% finish 1st

87% top 4

13% below the top 4

3.3 average finish

1st 3%
2nd 12%
3rd 52%
4th 20%
5th 10%
6th 3%
7th 1%
8th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Tennessee SC	2.43 (+0.26)	1st (2.32)	36 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2	Lexington Sporting Club Academy	2.29 (+0.12)	2nd (2.23)	33 of 42 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

Position over the season

7 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 6th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Oct 24 01:15 PM	Tennessee SC 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +20	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●●● Very tough	23%	1–2	0.88	1.98	Upside
Sun Oct 25 01:15 PM	Racing Louisville Academy 7th · 3-0-4 · GD -2	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●●○○○ Lean win	61%	1–0	2.04	1.99	Swing game
Sun Nov 1 10:00 AM	Indy Eleven 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Away far trip Grand Park	●●●●○ Tough	38%	1–1	1.42	1.93	Upside
Sat Nov 7 02:15 PM	FC Pride Elite 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -21	Home Seven Hills School	●○○○○ Favorable	91%	3–0	2.81	2.01	Bank it
Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM	Pittsburgh Riverhounds	Home Seven Hills School	●●●○○ Toss-up	53%	1–1	1.81	2.00	Swing game
Sat Mar 13 04:30 PM	Mercury 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +1	Home Seven Hills School	●●●○○ Toss-up	57%	2–1	1.91	1.99	Swing game
Sun Mar 14 03:30 PM	Lexington Sporting Club Academy 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +17	Home Seven Hills School	●●●●● Very tough	24%	1–1	0.93	1.91	Upside
Sat Apr 10 TBD	Tennessee SC 1st · 5-2-0 · GD +20	Away	●●●●● Very tough	16%	1–2	0.65	1.82	Upside
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Racing Louisville Academy 7th · 3-0-4 · GD -2	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	52%	1–1	1.81	1.82	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 TBD	Indy Eleven 5th · 3-1-2 · GD +1	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	45%	1–0	1.64	1.81	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	FC Pride Elite 8th · 0-0-6 · GD -21	Away	●○○○○ Favorable	87%	3–0	2.71	1.86	Bank it
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Mercury 4th · 4-0-3 · GD +1	Away	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	1–1	1.65	1.85	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Lexington Sporting Club Academy 2nd · 5-1-1 · GD +17	Away	●●●●● Very tough	17%	1–2	0.71	1.79	Upside
Sat May 8 01:15 PM	Ohio Galaxies FC 6th · 3-1-3 · GD +1	Home Ohio Elite Training Center	●●●○○ Toss-up	46%	1–1	1.65	1.78	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Tennessee SC

+20

2.43

WWWWD

-0.23

+0.01

100%

1.5

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	WNY Flash (—)	7–2
W	Sat Oct 3	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	8–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Mercury (4th)	3–1

Next: Sat Sep 19 vs Mercury · Sun Sep 20 at Lexington Sporting Club Academy · Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Elite SA See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	vs	Mercury (4th)	3–1	81%
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	35%
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	2–1	58%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	2–1	61%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	3–1	78%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	3–1	78%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	5–0	97%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	2–1	67%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	2–0	70%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	3–0	84%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Lexington Sporting Club Academy

+17

2.29

WDWWL

-0.21

+0.03

100%

1.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–1
W	Sat Oct 17	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	5–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Mercury (4th)	5–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	3–0

Next: Sun Sep 20 vs Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Ohio Premier · Sun Nov 8 vs GTFC Impact See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Sep 20 (no score yet)	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	2–1	44%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	1–0	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–1	54%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Mercury (4th)	2–1	69%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	2–0	72%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	1–0	65%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	2–1	63%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Internationals SC (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	2–0	73%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	4–0	97%
·	Sun May 16	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–0	64%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Elite SA

+12

2.17

WLWW

+0.13

+0.10

87%

3.3

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	10–1
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	WNY Flash (—)	3–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Indy Eleven See all 14 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–0	61%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–0	91%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–1	53%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–1	57%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	16%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–1	52%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–0	45%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–0	87%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Mercury (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	17%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	1–1	46%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mercury

1.71

LWLLW

+0.08

+0.15

34%

5.1

W	Sun Oct 18	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3

Next: Sat Sep 19 at Tennessee SC · Sat Nov 7 vs GTFC Impact · Sun Nov 8 vs Ohio Premier See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Sep 19 (no score yet)	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–3	8%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	1–1	28%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–2	14%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–1	41%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–1	30%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Internationals SC (—)	1–1	41%
·	Sat May 15	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	1–1	35%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	3–0	87%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Indy Eleven

1.67

LLWWW

+0.12

+0.14

44%

4.8

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	1–0
W	Sat Oct 17	vs	Mercury (4th)	2–1
W	Sat Oct 3	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	0–2
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–1
D	Sat Sep 19	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	2–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Internationals SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Elite SA See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Internationals SC (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–0	31%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	1–1	43%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–0	50%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	0–1	27%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–0	37%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sat May 15	at	Mercury (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sun May 16	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–1	14%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Ohio Galaxies FC

1.43

LWWLW

+0.46

+0.14

30%

5.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	3–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	0–2
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–0
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	WNY Flash (—)	2–0
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Racing Louisville Academy · Sun Oct 25 vs Tennessee SC · Sun Nov 1 at FC Pride Elite See all 13 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–0	51%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–2	18%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	78%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–0	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–1	19%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	Mercury (4th)	1–1	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	1–0	43%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–2	13%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–0	31%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–1	14%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Mercury (4th)	1–1	38%
·	Sat May 8	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–1	27%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Racing Louisville Academy

-2

1.29

WWLLW

+0.21

+0.20

6.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	WNY Flash (—)	4–0
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Pittsburgh Riverhounds (—)	1–2
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	1–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	2–0
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	FC Pride Elite (8th)	1–0
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Mercury (4th)	0–1
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Ohio Galaxies FC · Sun Oct 25 at Ohio Elite SA · Sat Nov 14 vs NWI Lions United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–1	22%
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	0–1	18%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	NWI Lions United (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Indiana Elite FC (—)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	FC Pride Elite (8th)	2–0	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–1	22%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–1	28%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	1–1	24%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Mercury (4th)	1–1	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–3	6%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

FC Pride Elite

-21

0.00

LLLLL

+0.57

+0.34

8.0

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Mercury (4th)	0–3
L	Sat Oct 17	vs	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–5
L	Sat Oct 3	vs	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	0–1
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	GTFC Impact (—)	0–2

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Internationals SC · Sun Oct 25 vs Cleveland Force SC · Sun Nov 1 vs Ohio Galaxies FC See all 12 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Internationals SC (—)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Cleveland Force SC (—)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Ohio Premier (—)	0–2	6%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Racing Louisville Academy (7th)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Tennessee SC (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Ohio Galaxies FC (6th)	0–2	4%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Ohio Elite SA (3rd)	0–3	4%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Indy Eleven (5th)	0–2	4%
·	Sat May 15	at	Lexington Sporting Club Academy (2nd)	0–4	0%
·	Sun May 16	at	Mercury (4th)	0–3	4%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.44 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.