XF
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northwest GU17 · 11 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)
Next game — Sun Dec 6, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | XF | Whatcom FC Rangers |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 11th | 10th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Whatcom FC Rangers average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
Whatcom FC Rangers sit 10th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Whatcom FC Rangers on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Whatcom FC Rangers game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF – Whatcom FC Rangers) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 9 | 5th▲ up 6 | 5th▲ up 6 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 10 | 1st▲ up 10 | 4th▲ up 7 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 9 | 5th▲ up 6 | 5th▲ up 6 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
11th— holds | 11th— holds | 11th— holds |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 8%
- 3rd 9%
- 4th 8%
- 5th 9%
- 6th 9%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 10%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 9%
- 11th 9%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3RSC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 11th (1.31) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Central Washington Sounders | 0.00 (+0.00) | 8th (1.38) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Eastside FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.44) | Already ahead |
| 4 | Northwest United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.44) | Already ahead |
| 5 | Oregon Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.48) | Already ahead |
| 6 | PacNW SC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 7 | Seattle United | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.44) | Already ahead |
| 8 | Valor Soccer | 0.00 (+0.00) | 9th (1.38) | Already ahead |
| 9 | Washington Premier | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.48) | Already ahead |
| 10 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 0.00 (+0.00) | 10th (1.34) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 11th hardest of 11
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Whatcom FC Rangers 10th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 16 TBD |
Central Washington Sounders 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
Oregon Surf 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 30 TBD |
PacNW SC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 6 09:00 AM |
Seattle United 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away TBD |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sun Feb 28 TBD |
3RSC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Valor Soccer 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.43 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM |
Northwest United 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Skagit Valley College |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 01:00 PM |
Washington Premier 9th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
Eastside FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | 3RSC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Central Washington Sounders · Sun Dec 13 at Washington Premier · Sat Jan 23 at Eastside FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Central Washington Sounders | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Oregon Surf · Sat Dec 12 vs 3RSC · Sat Jan 16 at XF See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Eastside FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Valor Soccer · Sun Dec 13 at PacNW SC · Sat Jan 16 vs Northwest United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Northwest United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Jan 16 at Eastside FC · Sat Jan 23 at PacNW SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Oregon Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Central Washington Sounders · Sat Dec 12 vs Washington Premier · Sat Jan 16 vs Seattle United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | PacNW SC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 vs Seattle United · Sun Dec 13 vs Eastside FC · Sat Jan 23 vs Northwest United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Seattle United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at PacNW SC · Sun Dec 13 vs Valor Soccer · Sat Jan 16 at Oregon Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | Valor Soccer | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Eastside FC · Sun Dec 13 at Seattle United · Sat Jan 16 at Whatcom FC Rangers See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Washington Premier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 12 at Oregon Surf · Sun Dec 13 vs 3RSC · Sun Jan 24 vs PacNW SC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Whatcom FC Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Northwest United · Sun Dec 6 at XF · Sat Jan 16 vs Valor Soccer See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | XF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Dec 6 vs Whatcom FC Rangers · Sat Jan 16 vs Central Washington Sounders · Sat Jan 23 vs Oregon Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.