Match Fit Surf Blue
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU18/19 · 6 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Dec 5, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Match Fit Surf Blue | PA Rush |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 4th | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They struggle to score
PA Rush average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Lancaster FC sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Lancaster FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PA Rush game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf Blue – PA Rush) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Nov 30 – Sun Dec 6); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 4th— holds | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 1st▲ up 3 | 4th— holds |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 3 | 5th▼ down 1 | 5th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 | 6th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 16%
- 2nd 17%
- 3rd 17%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 18%
- 6th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delaware FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 6th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | FC Europa | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 3 | Lancaster FC | 0.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Dec 5 TBD |
PA Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
FC Europa 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
Lancaster FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 02:30 PM |
PA Rush 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Quakertown High School |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.49 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.44 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 06:00 PM |
FC Europa 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away YSC Sports |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Delaware FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
Delaware FC 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Smith Estates |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Lancaster FC 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
West-Mont United 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Delaware FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs West-Mont United · Sat Dec 12 at PA Rush · Sun Dec 13 vs Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | FC Europa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Lancaster FC · Sat Dec 12 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Apr 3 vs West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | Lancaster FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs FC Europa · Sat Dec 12 at West-Mont United · Sun Dec 13 at Delaware FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 vs PA Rush · Sat Dec 12 vs FC Europa · Sat Apr 3 vs Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | PA Rush | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Dec 12 vs Delaware FC · Sat Mar 6 at Lancaster FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | West-Mont United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
No games played yet. Next: Sat Dec 5 at Delaware FC · Sat Dec 12 vs Lancaster FC · Sat Apr 3 at FC Europa See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.