New England Surf

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU17 · 8 teams · New England Surf (all teams)

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4th

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

51% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD

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New England Surf
4th · 0.00 PPG

Quickstrike FC
6th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	New England Surf	Quickstrike FC
Position	4th	6th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
Quickstrike FC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
Keystone Athletic sit 3rd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above Keystone Athletic on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Quickstrike FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (New England Surf – Quickstrike FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 3	8th▼ down 4	8th▼ down 4
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 3	1st▲ up 3	7th▼ down 3
Draw 1.00 PPG	1st▲ up 3	8th▼ down 4	8th▼ down 4
Loss 0.00 PPG	8th▼ down 4	8th▼ down 4	8th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

13% finish 1st

51% top 4

49% below the top 4

4.5 average finish

1st 13%
2nd 12%
3rd 12%
4th 14%
5th 12%
6th 12%
7th 13%
8th 11%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Albany Alleycats	0.00 (+0.00)	5th (1.41)	Already ahead
2	East Coast Surf	0.00 (+0.00)	3rd (1.41)	Already ahead
3	Keystone Athletic	0.00 (+0.00)	8th (1.34)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 4th hardest of 8

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sat Mar 20 TBD	Quickstrike FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Mar 21 TBD	Albany Alleycats 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sun Apr 4 TBD	Albany Alleycats 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.35	Swing game
Sat Apr 10 TBD	East Coast Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sun Apr 11 TBD	Quickstrike FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.44	Swing game
Sat Apr 17 04:30 PM	YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Macclesfield Park · turf	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside
Sun Apr 18 04:00 PM	PDA SOUTH BLUE 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Westampton Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.39	Upside
Sat Apr 24 TBD	Keystone Athletic 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sun Apr 25 TBD	Reading Rage Surf 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.43	Swing game
Sun May 2 TBD	East Coast Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.41	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Albany Alleycats

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at East Coast Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf · Sun Apr 4 at New England Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

East Coast Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Mar 21 vs Quickstrike FC · Sun Apr 4 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Keystone Athletic

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs YMS · Sun Mar 21 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Apr 4 vs Reading Rage Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

New England Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats · Sun Apr 4 vs Albany Alleycats See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH BLUE

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs YMS · Sun Apr 4 at YMS See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Quickstrike FC

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 at East Coast Surf · Sun Apr 4 vs East Coast Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Reading Rage Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic · Sun Apr 4 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	vs	YMS (8th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	at	YMS (8th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

YMS

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Apr 4 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	PDA SOUTH BLUE (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Keystone Athletic (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 11	at	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	New England Surf (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Albany Alleycats (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	East Coast Surf (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Quickstrike FC (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Reading Rage Surf (7th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.