Keystone Athletic
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU17 · 8 teams · Keystone Athletic (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.4 against · 1.58 expected points)
| Season so far | Keystone Athletic | YMS |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 8th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
YMS average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Swing game — small margins
Win 47% / draw 18% / loss 35%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
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What a win does
East Coast Surf sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above East Coast Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the YMS game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Keystone Athletic – YMS) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 7th▼ down 4 | 8th▼ down 5 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 6th▼ down 3 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 8th▼ down 5 | 8th▼ down 5 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
8th▼ down 5 | 8th▼ down 5 | 8th▼ down 5 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 9%
- 2nd 10%
- 3rd 11%
- 4th 11%
- 5th 14%
- 6th 15%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 16%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albany Alleycats | 0.00 (+0.00) | 5th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | East Coast Surf | 0.00 (+0.00) | 3rd (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 8
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.58 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
Reading Rage Surf 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Reading Rage Surf 7th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:00 AM |
YMS 8th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Duiame Athletic Complex - Holy Ghost Preparatory S |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
PDA SOUTH BLUE 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Quickstrike FC 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
East Coast Surf 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
New England Surf 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.37 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
Albany Alleycats 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.35 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 12:30 PM |
PDA SOUTH BLUE 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.34 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albany Alleycats | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at East Coast Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs New England Surf · Sun Apr 4 at New England Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | East Coast Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs Albany Alleycats · Sun Mar 21 vs Quickstrike FC · Sun Apr 4 at Quickstrike FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Keystone Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs YMS · Sun Mar 21 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Apr 4 vs Reading Rage Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | New England Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at Quickstrike FC · Sun Mar 21 at Albany Alleycats · Sun Apr 4 vs Albany Alleycats See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PDA SOUTH BLUE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at Reading Rage Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs YMS · Sun Apr 4 at YMS See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Quickstrike FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs New England Surf · Sun Mar 21 at East Coast Surf · Sun Apr 4 vs East Coast Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Reading Rage Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Mar 21 vs Keystone Athletic · Sun Apr 4 at Keystone Athletic See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | YMS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at Keystone Athletic · Sun Mar 21 at PDA SOUTH BLUE · Sun Apr 4 vs PDA SOUTH BLUE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.