NLSA Surf
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU17 · 6 teams · NLSA Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Mar 20, TBD
Venue TBD
●●●●○ Tough to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)
| Season so far | NLSA Surf | WNY Flash Binghamton |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 6th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 0-0-0 | 0-0-0 |
| Points per game | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Goals against / game | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | — | — |
| Biggest win | — | — |
| Worst loss | — | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
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They struggle to score
WNY Flash Binghamton average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
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What a win does
Match Fit Surf White sit 2nd on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.A point moves us above Match Fit Surf White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the WNY Flash Binghamton game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (NLSA Surf – WNY Flash Binghamton) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 2 other games that week (Mon Mar 15 – Sun Mar 21); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 3.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 1st▲ up 2 | 2nd▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.00 PPG |
1st▲ up 2 | 4th▼ down 1 | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 0.00 PPG |
6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 | 6th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 16%
- 2nd 18%
- 3rd 16%
- 4th 16%
- 5th 17%
- 6th 17%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copa Academy | 0.00 (+0.00) | 4th (1.41) | Already ahead |
| 2 | Match Fit Surf White | 0.00 (+0.00) | 1st (1.41) | Already ahead |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.00 · 3rd hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Mar 20 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.24 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 21 TBD |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.44 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 04:00 PM |
PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away Westampton Sports Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.39 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.41 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Match Fit Surf White 2nd · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Home |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.58 | 1.43 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.24 | 1.41 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Copa Academy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Apr 10 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 17 vs WNY Flash Binghamton See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Match Fit Surf White | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Apr 10 at PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 17 vs NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | NLSA Surf | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Mar 21 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 10 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PDA SOUTH WHITE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Match Fit Surf White See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | PSA Monmouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | WNY Flash Binghamton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +0 | 0 | 0.00 | — | +0.00 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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No games played yet. Next: Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Apr 17 at FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.