Match Fit Surf White

ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU17 · 6 teams · Match Fit Surf (all teams)

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2nd

0-0-0 record · 0 played

0.00 points per game

+0 goal diff · 0–0

last 0

66% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.5

+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Apr 4, TBD

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Match Fit Surf White
2nd · 0.00 PPG

FC Copa Academy
1st · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

35% 18% 47%

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.4 for, 2.7 against · 1.24 expected points)

Season so far	Match Fit Surf White	FC Copa Academy
Position	2nd	1st
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-0	0-0-0
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.0	0.0
Goals against / game	0.0	0.0
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	0	0
Form (recent first)	—	—
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	—	—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	+0.00	+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.00	+0.00

Game plan

They struggle to score
FC Copa Academy average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 0 of 0.
A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 35%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Away game
Kickoff TBD at TBD.
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
FC Copa Academy sit 1st on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above FC Copa Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Copa Academy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Match Fit Surf White – FC Copa Academy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Mar 29 – Sun Apr 4); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Draw · 1.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Win 3.00 PPG	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1	1st▲ up 1
Draw 1.00 PPG	2nd— holds	2nd— holds	2nd— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	6th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 4	6th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 2nd even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

16% finish 1st

66% top 4

34% below the top 4

3.5 average finish

1st 16%
2nd 17%
3rd 18%
4th 15%
5th 18%
6th 16%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	FC Copa Academy	0.00 (+0.00)	4th (1.41)	Already ahead

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 2nd hardest of 6

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Apr 4 TBD	FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Apr 10 12:30 PM	PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away Westampton Sports Complex	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.24	Upside
Sat Apr 17 TBD	NLSA Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.35	Swing game
Sun Apr 18 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat Apr 24 TBD	PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.38	Upside
Sun Apr 25 TBD	PDA SOUTH WHITE 4th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat May 1 TBD	WNY Flash Binghamton 6th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.39	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	FC Copa Academy 1st · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game
Sat May 8 TBD	NLSA Surf 3rd · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Away	●●●●○ Tough	35%	2–2	1.24	1.39	Upside
Sat May 15 TBD	PSA Monmouth 5th · 0-0-0 · GD +0	Home	●●●○○ Toss-up	47%	2–2	1.58	1.41	Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

FC Copa Academy

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Apr 4 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Apr 10 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 17 vs WNY Flash Binghamton See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	vs	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 16	at	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Match Fit Surf White

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sun Apr 4 at FC Copa Academy · Sat Apr 10 at PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 17 vs NLSA Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Apr 4	at	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	at	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	vs	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

NLSA Surf

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sun Mar 21 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sat Apr 10 vs FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 2	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	at	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PDA SOUTH WHITE

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 at PSA Monmouth · Sun Mar 21 at NLSA Surf · Sat Apr 10 vs Match Fit Surf White See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	at	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 10	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 15	vs	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

PSA Monmouth

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Mar 21 at WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Apr 17 at PDA SOUTH WHITE See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	WNY Flash Binghamton (6th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 1	at	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 15	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sun May 16	vs	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	vs	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

WNY Flash Binghamton

0.00

—

+0.00

—

No games played yet.

Next: Sat Mar 20 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Mar 21 vs PSA Monmouth · Sat Apr 17 at FC Copa Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Apr 24	vs	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	PSA Monmouth (5th)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Match Fit Surf White (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun May 2	at	NLSA Surf (3rd)	2–2	35%
·	Sat May 8	vs	FC Copa Academy (1st)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 22	at	PDA SOUTH WHITE (4th)	2–2	35%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.50 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.