West-Mont United
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 6 teams · West-Mont United S.A (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 11:30 AM
Smith Estates, Turf ↗ · turf far trip
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.4 for, 2.6 against · 0.74 expected points)
| Season so far | West-Mont United | Delaware FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 3rd | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-1-1 | 3-0-1 |
| Points per game | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Goals for / game | 2.0 | 4.3 |
| Goals against / game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L | W W |
| Biggest win | 1–0 vs NLSA Surf | 6–0 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE |
| Worst loss | 1–2 vs FC Copa Academy | — |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.57 | +1.86 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
Respect their attack
Delaware FC score 4.2/game — well above the league's 1.9.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
-
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 19%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
-
Away game
Kickoff 11:30 AM at Smith Estates.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Delaware FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West-Mont United – Delaware FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.40 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
| Win 2.00 PPG |
2nd▲ up 1 | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Draw 1.60 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 3rd— holds |
| Loss 1.40 PPG |
3rd— holds | 3rd— holds | 4th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 3rd even if every rival loses, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 3%
- 2nd 15%
- 3rd 78%
- 4th 4%
- 5th <1%
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Europa | 2.50 (+0.75) | 2nd (2.16) | 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 2 | Delaware FC | 2.25 (+0.50) | 1st (2.30) | 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection |
The path
run-in difficulty +0.03 · 4th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 11:30 AM |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Smith Estates · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–2 | 0.74 | 1.55 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Lancaster FC 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
2–1 | 2.25 | 1.67 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 8 01:00 PM |
PSA Monmouth |
Home The Far Post · turf |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 56% |
2–1 | 1.88 | 1.70 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 09:30 AM |
FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7 |
Away The Proving Grounds |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
0–1 | 0.95 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Lancaster FC 5th · 1-0-3 · GD -5 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
2–1 | 1.99 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
1–2 | 0.99 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 TBD |
PA Rush 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
2–0 | 2.34 | 1.65 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 18 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Blue 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–0 | 2.35 | 1.71 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 09:00 AM |
PA Rush 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–0 | 2.15 | 1.74 | Swing game |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Match Fit Surf Blue 6th · 1-0-3 · GD -7 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 65% |
2–1 | 2.13 | 1.77 | Swing game |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
FC Europa 1st · 3-1-0 · GD +7 |
Home |
●●●●○ Tough | 29% |
1–1 | 1.16 | 1.73 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | +7 | 10 | 2.50 | WW | +0.00 | -0.05 | 100% | 1.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs FC Copa Academy · Sun Nov 1 at Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Blue See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Delaware FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WW | +0.00 | -0.21 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Oct 31 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West-Mont United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | West-Mont United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | LW | +0.00 | +0.03 | 100% | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Delaware FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA Monmouth See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PA Rush | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WL | +0.00 | +0.31 | 22% | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Nov 1 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Mar 6 at Lancaster FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lancaster FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 3 | 0.75 | WL | +0.00 | +0.26 | 52% | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Oct 31 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 | 0.75 | LL | +0.00 | +0.31 | 26% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.92 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.