FC Europa
ECNL Regional League Girls · Northeast GU13 · 6 teams · FC Europa (all teams)
Next game — Sun Nov 1, 12:00 PM
Foundation Field at Overlook, field 4 ↗ far trip
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–0 (expected goals 3.2 for, 0.9 against · 2.58 expected points)
| Season so far | FC Europa | Lancaster FC |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 1st | 5th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-1-0 | 1-0-4 |
| Points per game | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| Goals for / game | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals against / game | 0.2 | 3.2 |
| Clean sheets | 3 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W W W | L W |
| Biggest win | 6–0 vs FC Copa Academy | 5–0 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE |
| Worst loss | — | 0–5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +1.62 | -0.88 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.00 | +0.00 |
Game plan
-
They leak goals — be greedy
Lancaster FC concede 3.2/game; worst result 0–5 vs WNY Flash Binghamton.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
-
Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–0.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Away game
Kickoff 12:00 PM at Foundation Field at Overlook.Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
If Sunday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Lancaster FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Europa – Lancaster FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 3 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Win 2.67 PPG |
1st— holds | 1st— holds | 1st— holds |
| Draw 2.33 PPG |
1st— holds | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
| Loss 2.17 PPG |
2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 | 2nd▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 3–0 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st 65%
- 2nd 33%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th
- 5th
- 6th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.09 · 5th hardest of 6
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
Lancaster FC 5th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Away far trip
Foundation Field at Overlook |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
3–0 | 2.58 | 2.60 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 7 12:00 PM |
Match Fit Surf Blue 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Harrison HS |
●○○○○ Favorable | 82% |
2–0 | 2.58 | 2.59 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 09:30 AM |
West-Mont United 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●●○○○ Lean win | 63% |
1–0 | 2.10 | 2.53 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 10 09:30 AM |
Lancaster FC 5th · 1-0-4 · GD -7 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.55 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 17 09:30 AM |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Odyssey Charter School · turf |
●●●●○ Tough | 41% |
1–1 | 1.47 | 2.45 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 09:00 AM |
Match Fit Surf Blue 6th · 1-0-4 · GD -8 |
Home YSC Sports |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
3–0 | 2.72 | 2.47 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 09:30 AM |
PA Rush 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Home The Proving Grounds |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
2–0 | 2.68 | 2.49 | Bank it |
| Sat May 8 01:00 PM |
Delaware FC 2nd · 3-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home YSC Sports |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
1–1 | 1.74 | 2.43 | Swing game |
| Sun May 16 09:00 AM |
PA Rush 4th · 1-1-3 · GD -8 |
Away far trip
Quakertown High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
2–0 | 2.55 | 2.44 | Bank it |
| Sat May 22 TBD |
West-Mont United 3rd · 2-1-1 · GD +4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
1–0 | 1.89 | 2.40 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | FC Europa | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 13 | 2.60 | WWW | +0.00 | -0.09 | 100% | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Lancaster FC · Sat Nov 7 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Apr 3 vs West-Mont United See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Delaware FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 9 | 2.25 | WW | +0.00 | -0.12 | 100% | 1.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs WNY Flash Binghamton · Sat Oct 31 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 1 vs West-Mont United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | West-Mont United | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 7 | 1.75 | LW | +0.00 | +0.11 | 99% | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Delaware FC · Sat Nov 7 vs Lancaster FC · Sun Nov 8 vs PSA Monmouth See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | PA Rush | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 | 0.80 | WL | +0.00 | +0.40 | 31% | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs PDA SOUTH WHITE · Sun Nov 1 at Match Fit Surf Blue · Sat Mar 6 at Lancaster FC See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Lancaster FC | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | 0.60 | WL | +0.00 | +0.37 | 41% | 4.8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Match Fit Surf White · Sat Oct 31 at Delaware FC · Sun Nov 1 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Match Fit Surf Blue | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 3 | 0.60 | LL | +0.00 | +0.40 | 29% | 5.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs NLSA Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs PA Rush · Sat Nov 7 vs FC Europa See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.04 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.